The Percentile Forecast is a representation of the player\'s expected performance in the upcoming season at various levels of probability.\nFor example, if a pitcher\'s 75th percentile ERA forecast is 3.50, this indicates that he has a 75 percent chance to post an ERA of 3.50 or higher, and a 25 percent chance to post an ERA lower than 3.50. Higher percentiles indicate more favorable outcomes.
\nThe Percentile Forecast is calibrated off two key statistics: TAv for hitters, and ERA for pitchers (although the ERA is a component ERA, and thus will not reflect the variance of sequencing in a player\'s performance).
\nPECOTA runs a series of regressions within the set of comparable data in order to estimate how changes in peripheral statistics are related to changes in equivalent runs. For example, if it first estimates that Carl Crawford will produce a .290 TAv next year, it then tries to determine what home run total, walk total, and so on are most likely to be associated with a .290 TAv season.
\nPECOTA then iterates this result to ensure that the peripheral statistics \'add up\' to the right calibrating statistic (TAv or ERA). It is important to note that the Percentile Forecast is designed to work around the calibrating statistic only.
\nA player\'s forecast is adjusted to the park and league context associated with the team listed at the top of the forecast page. Team dependant stats like Wins, RBIs, and BABIP account for the projected performance level of a player\'s teammates
\nPECOTA forecasts playing time (plate appearances) in addition to a player\'s rate statistics. These forecasts are based on a player\'s previous record of performance, and the comparable player data, and do not incorporate any additional information about managerial decisions.
'); jpfl_definitions[2] = new Array('3b', 'For hitters: Triples\n\n\nOn the custom statistic reports, a player\'s current age.'); jpfl_definitions[11] = new Array('apw', 'Adjusted Pitching Wins. Thorn and Palmer\'s method for calculating a starter\'s value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values are calculated using total runs allowed instead of earned runs allowed.
\n\nMichael Wolverton talks about adjusted pitching wins here.'); jpfl_definitions[12] = new Array('attrition rate', 'The percent chance that a player\'s playing opportunities will decrease by at least 50 percent relative to his baseline playing time forecast. For hitters, playing opportunities are measured by plate appearances and for pitchers, they are measured by opposing batters faced.
\n\nAlthough it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. ');
jpfl_definitions[13] = new Array('avg', 'Hitters: Batting average
\nPitchers: Batting average allowed');
jpfl_definitions[14] = new Array('1b', '
For hitters: Singles\n
For pitchers: Singles Allowed\n
For positions: First Baseman'); jpfl_definitions[15] = new Array('ball%', 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'); jpfl_definitions[16] = new Array('baseline', 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a player\'s forecast. The Baseline developed based on the player\'s previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.
The Baseline forecast is also significant in that it attempts to remove luck from a forecast line. For example, a player who hit .310, but with a poor batting eye and unimpressive speed indicators, is probably not really a .310 hitter. It\'s more likely that he\'s a .290 hitter who had a few balls bounce his way, and the Baseline attempts to correct for this.
\nSimilarly, a pitcher with an unusually low EqHR9 rate, but a high flyball rate, is likely to have achieved the low EqHR9 partly as a result of luck. In addition, the Baseline corrects for large disparities between a pitcher\'s ERA and his PERA, and an unusually high or low hit rate on balls in play, which are highly subject to luck. '); jpfl_definitions[17] = new Array('batting average', 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats. In PECOTA, Batting Average is one of five primary production metrics used in identifying a hitter\'s comparables. It is defined as H/AB. '); jpfl_definitions[18] = new Array('bb', 'Hitters: Base on balls (walks)\nPECOTA constructs a 182-day interval on either side of a player\'s birthdate in order to match ages; this method is more precise than the Bill James similarity scores, which use a player\'s age as of July 1. '); jpfl_definitions[29] = new Array('cs', 'Caught Stealing'); jpfl_definitions[30] = new Array('d1', 'Difference between actual wins and W1. A positive number means the team has won more games than expected from their statistics.'); jpfl_definitions[31] = new Array('d2', 'Difference between actual wins and W2. A positive number means the team has won more games than expected from their statistics.'); jpfl_definitions[32] = new Array('d3', 'Difference between actual wins and W3. A positive number means the team has won more games than expected from their statistics.'); jpfl_definitions[33] = new Array('def eff', 'Defensive Efficiency = 1- (H-HR)/(AB-SO-HR+SH+SF)'); jpfl_definitions[34] = new Array('delta-h', 'The number of hits above or below average for this pitcher, based on his own number of balls in play and his team\'s rate of hits (minus home runs) per ball in play; (H-HR) - BIP * (team (H-HR)/BIP). Essentially, the Voros McCracken number. For a team, Delta-H should be zero. Positive numbers signify more hits allowed than expected ("bad luck," if you believe pitchers have nothing to do with the outcome of a BIP), negative numbers mean fewer hits than expected ("good luck").'); jpfl_definitions[35] = new Array('delta-r', 'The number of runs, more or less, that a pitcher allowed, compared to his statistics. The pitcher\'s statistics (such as hits, walks, home runs) are run through a modified version of the equivalent runs formula to get estimated runs. Again, positive is "bad luck," negative is "good luck."'); jpfl_definitions[36] = new Array('delta-w', 'The number of wins, more or less, that a pitcher won, compared to estimated wins. Estimated wins are derived from the pitcher\'s actual runs allowed and team average run scoring. Here, a positive number is "good luck," negative is "bad luck."'); jpfl_definitions[37] = new Array('dera', 'Defense-adjusted ERA. Not to be confused with Voros McCracken\'s Defense-Neutral ERA. Based on the PRAA, DERA is intended to be a defense-independent version of the NRA. As with that statistic, 4.50 is average. Note that if DERA is higher than NRA, you can safely assume he pitched in front of an above-average defense.'); jpfl_definitions[38] = new Array('diagnostics', 'Diagnostics are a series of metrics designed to estimate the probability of certain types of changes in production and playing time; see the individual entries for additional detail. '); jpfl_definitions[39] = new Array('difficulty adjustment', 'Each league has been given a difficulty level, based on the performance of players in that league compared to the same players\' performance in other seasons. The reference difficulty level was defined by the trend line of the National League from 1947 to 2002, and extended backwards to 1871. The difficulty adjustment is the ratio between the actual difficulty level and the reference level.'); jpfl_definitions[40] = new Array('dp', 'Double plays, turned or hit into.'); jpfl_definitions[41] = new Array('drop rate', 'Drop Rate is the percent chance that a player will not receive any major league plate appearances in a given season, based on comparables who disappear from the dataset entirely. Because of the conventions PECOTA uses in selecting comparables, the Drop Rate is always assumed to be zero for the current year, but it is an important consideration in a hitter\'s Five-Year Forecast. '); jpfl_definitions[42] = new Array('e', 'Errors.'); jpfl_definitions[43] = new Array('e(w)', 'Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).'); jpfl_definitions[44] = new Array('e(l)', 'Expected loss record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).'); jpfl_definitions[45] = new Array('eqa', 'Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player\'s defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260.
\n\nEqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is
\n\nRawEqA =(H+TB+1.5*(BB+HBP+SB)+SH+SF-IBB/2)/(AB+BB+HBP+SH+SF+CS+SB)
\n\nAny variables which are either missing or which you don\'t want to use can simply be ignored (be sure you ignore it for both the individual and league, though). You\'ll also need to calculate the RawEqa for the entire league (LgEqA).
\n\nConvert RawEqA into EqR, taking into account the league EqA LgEqA, league runs per plate appearance, the park factor PF, an adjustment pitadj for not having to face your own team\'s pitchers, and the difficulty rating. Again, you can ignore some of these as the situation requires. xmul can simply be called "2", while the PF, diffic, and pitadj can be set to "1".
\n\n xmul=2*(.125/PF/Lg(R/PA)/pitadj)
\n EQAADJ=xmul*(RawEqa/LgEqa)* ((1+1/diffic)/2) + (1-xmul)
\n UEQR=EQAADJ*PA*Lg(R/PA)
\n\nTo get the final, fully adjusted EqA, we need to place this into a team environment.
\n\nThis is an average team:
\n AVGTM=Lg(R/Out)*Lg(Outs/game)*PF*Games*(DH adjustment)
\n\nThe DH adjustment is for playing in a league with a DH. "Games" is the number of games played by this player.
\n\nReplacing one player on the average team with our test subject:
\n TMPLUS=AVGTM+UEQR-OUT*Lg(R/Out)*DH*PF
\n\nGet pythagorean exponent
\n pyexp=((TMPLUS+AVGTM)/Games)**.285
\n\nCalculate win percentage
\n WINPCT=((TMPLUS/AVGTM)**pyexp)/(1+(TMPLUS/AVGTM)**pyexp)
\n\nConvert into adjusted space, where the Pythagorean exponent is set to 2.
\n NEWTM=(WINPCT/(1-WINPCT))**(1/2)
\n\nFully adjusted EqR:
\n EQR=.17235*((NEWTM-1)*27.*Games + Outs)
\n\nFully adjusted EqA
\n EQA= (EQR/5/Outs)** 0.4\n\n'); jpfl_definitions[46] = new Array('eqa distribution', 'Also known as a BSP chart, an acronym for bloodstain spatter pattern, which these graphs seem to bear an eerie resemblance toward. The BSP charts plot a rate performance statistic (EqA or EqERA) on the one axis and playing time on the other (PA or IP). Each of the diamonds you see represents the performance implied by one of a player\'s comparables; the higher the similarity score for that comparable, the larger the size of the diamond. There is also an area of the chart shaded in a yellow color; this is the ‘golden zone\' of performance in which a player both performs well (an EqA of .300 or higher) and remains in the lineup frequently (at least 500 plate appearances). Pitchers actually have two golden zones, one each for roles as starting pitchers and relievers.'); jpfl_definitions[47] = new Array('eqbb9', 'EqBB9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqBB9 = 3.0.\nWhile a major league pitcher\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitcher\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[48] = new Array('eqera', 'EqERA is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqERA = 4.50.\nWhile a major league pitcher\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitcher\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects, and the quality of a pitcher\'s defense. EqERA is conceptually identical to NRA, as used in the DT cards.'); jpfl_definitions[49] = new Array('eqh9', 'EqH9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqH9 = 9.0.\nWhile a major league pitcher\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitcher\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[50] = new Array('eqhr9', 'EqHR9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqHR9 = 1.0.\nWhile a major league pitcher\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitcher\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[51] = new Array('eqk9', 'EqK9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqK9 = 6.0.\nWhile a major league pitcher\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitcher\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[52] = new Array('eqr', 'True Runs tells of a player\'s total offensive contribution in runs. '); jpfl_definitions[53] = new Array('eqra', 'Equivalent Runs allowed by a team.'); jpfl_definitions[54] = new Array('er', 'Earned Runs.'); jpfl_definitions[55] = new Array('era', 'Earned Run Average. Earned runs, divided by innings pitched, multiplied by nine.'); jpfl_definitions[56] = new Array('era distribution', 'In PECOTA projections, the ERA Distribution chart displays a pitcher\'s ERA forecast at various levels of probability. It progresses in sequential intervals of five percentage points, ranging from a pitcher\'s 95th percentile forecast on the left, to his 5th percentile forecast on the right.
In addition to the probability distribution for a given pitcher, which appears in blue, the chart also includes a normal distribution on ERA for all pitchers in the league, as adjusted to the player\'s current park and league context ("Norm"), and a dashed line representing the performance of a replacement level pitcher ("Replace"). '); jpfl_definitions[57] = new Array('five-year forecast', 'The Five-Year Forecast is a player\'s weighted mean PECOTA forecast, taken over his next five seasons.
\nThe process for generating a player\'s weighted mean line for a season some number of years into the future (e.g. 2008) is fundamentally identical to generating his forecast for the season immediately upcoming (e.g. 2006). The exception is that some players may have dropped out of the comparables database, in which case their performance cannot be considered. (See also \nJeremy Giambi Effect).\nIf a player\'s Drop Rate exceeds 50% (that is, more than half of his comparables are no longer playing professional baseball), then PECOTA does not list his weighted mean line for that season. Instead the season is designated with the tagline \'Out of Baseball\'.\nNote that the Five-Year Forecast assumes that a player\'s team context remains the same for all years of the forecast.'); jpfl_definitions[58] = new Array('fraa', 'Fielding Runs Above Average is Prospectus\' individual defensive metric created using play-by-play data with adjustments made based on plays made, the expected numbers of plays per position, the handedness of the batter, the park, and base-out states.'); jpfl_definitions[59] = new Array('frar', 'Fielding Runs Above Replacement. The difference between an average player and a replacement player is determined by the number of plays that position is called on to make. That makes the value at each position variable over time. In the all-time adjustments, an average catcher is set to 39 runs above replacement per 162 games, first base to 10, second to 29, third to 22, short to 33, center field to 24, left and right to 14.'); jpfl_definitions[60] = new Array('g', 'Games played (pitched, fielded, officiated).'); jpfl_definitions[61] = new Array('g/f', 'Ratio of ground balls to fly balls.'); jpfl_definitions[62] = new Array('gdp', 'Grounded into double play. Not recorded prior to 1933 in the NL, or 1939 in the AL, and not at all for the other leagues. Unfortunately, without opportunity information, I don\'t find it very useful for inclusion in EqA. There is also evidence, from Tom Ruane, that players who hit into more DP also tend to advance more runners with outs, enough to offset the DPs.'); jpfl_definitions[63] = new Array('gs', 'Games started by a pitcher.'); jpfl_definitions[64] = new Array('h/bip', 'See BABIP.'); jpfl_definitions[65] = new Array('h_9', 'Hits allowed per 9 innings pitched '); jpfl_definitions[66] = new Array('h9', 'Hits allowed per 9 innings pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[67] = new Array('hbp', 'Hit by pitch. '); jpfl_definitions[68] = new Array('hd', 'Holds. A Hold is credited any time a relief pitcher enters a game in a Save Situation, records at least one out, and leaves the game never having relinquished the lead.'); jpfl_definitions[69] = new Array('historical stats', 'Historical Stats are the player\'s previous three seasons of performance as they appear in the BP book (with the addition of a player\'s WARP scores).'); jpfl_definitions[70] = new Array('hr', 'Home runs, or home runs allowed.'); jpfl_definitions[71] = new Array('cat_1', 'A category 1 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 100 pitches or less.'); jpfl_definitions[72] = new Array('cat_2', 'A category 2 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 101-109 pitches.'); jpfl_definitions[73] = new Array('cat_3', 'A category 3 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 110-121 pitches.'); jpfl_definitions[74] = new Array('cat_4', 'A category 4 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 122-132 pitches.'); jpfl_definitions[75] = new Array('cat_5', 'A category 5 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 133 or more pitches.'); jpfl_definitions[76] = new Array('ibb', 'Intentional walks. '); jpfl_definitions[77] = new Array('improvement rate', 'Improve Rate is the percent chance that a player\'s\nproduction will improve at all relative to his baseline\nperformance.'); jpfl_definitions[78] = new Array('inn', 'Innings officated.'); jpfl_definitions[79] = new Array('ip', 'Innings Pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[80] = new Array('ip/gs', 'Innings pitched per start.'); jpfl_definitions[81] = new Array('iso', 'Isolated Power (ISO) is a measure of a hitter\'s raw power, in terms of extra bases per AB. The formula is SLG-AVG, or (2B+3B*2+HR*3)/AB (the two are equivalent).'); jpfl_definitions[82] = new Array('k_9', 'Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[83] = new Array('l', 'Refers to a pitcher\'s losses. In context of a team rather than an individual pitcher, refers to team losses. '); jpfl_definitions[84] = new Array('l1', '"First order losses." Pythagenport expected losses, based on RS and RA.'); jpfl_definitions[85] = new Array('l2', '"Second order losses." Pythagenport losses, based on EQR and EQRA.'); jpfl_definitions[86] = new Array('l3', '"Third order losses." Pythagenport losses, based on AEQR and AEQRA.'); jpfl_definitions[87] = new Array('lg', 'League. \'A\' or \'AL\' denotes American League. \'N\' or \'NL\' denotes National League.'); jpfl_definitions[88] = new Array('maxnp', 'The highest number of pitches thrown by a pitcher in one outing.'); jpfl_definitions[89] = new Array('mlvr', 'MLVr is a rate-based version of Marginal Lineup Value (MLV), a measure of offensive production created by David Tate and further developed by Keith Woolner. MLV is an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers. MLVr is approximately equal to MLV per game. The league average MLVr is zero (0.000). Additional information on MLV and MLVr can be found here.'); jpfl_definitions[90] = new Array('name', 'Player\'s name.'); jpfl_definitions[91] = new Array('np', 'Total number of pitches thrown.'); jpfl_definitions[92] = new Array('nra', 'Normalized Runs Allowed. "Normalized runs" have the same win value, against a league average of 4.5 and a pythagorean exponent of 2, as the player\'s actual runs allowed did when measured against his league average.'); jpfl_definitions[93] = new Array('oba', 'On-base average. (H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF). '); jpfl_definitions[94] = new Array('obp', 'On-base percentage. (H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF). For pitchers, OBP is on base percentage allowed.'); jpfl_definitions[95] = new Array('ops', 'On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage'); jpfl_definitions[96] = new Array('outs', 'Known outs made by the player or induced by a pitcher, defined by AB-H+CS+SH+SF. '); jpfl_definitions[97] = new Array('owp', 'Offensive Winning Percentage. A Bill James stat, usually derived from runs created. In EqA terms, it could be calculated as (EQA/refEQA)^5, where refEQA is some reference EQA, such as league average (always .260) or the position-averaged EQA. '); jpfl_definitions[98] = new Array('pa', 'Plate appearances; AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF.'); jpfl_definitions[99] = new Array('pa%', 'The percentage of the team\'s total plate appearances that this player had. '); jpfl_definitions[100] = new Array('pap', 'Pitcher Abuse Points. When used in the Pitcher Abuse Point report, PAP refers to PAP^3, which assigns 0 PAP to a start in which the pitcher throws 100 or fewer pitches and (PC-100)^3 PAP for all other starts.'); jpfl_definitions[101] = new Array('park adjustment', 'An adjustment made to account for the fact that some parks are easier to hit in than average, giving an advantage (in raw statistical terms) to hitters who play for that team. Park factors are always made relative to a league average of 1.00. The park adjustments in the BP are made only on the park factor for runs, averaged over five years; they can be found here. The first column is a one-year park factor, the second column is the five-year average centered on that year (assuming the team did not change or massively renovate their park).'); jpfl_definitions[102] = new Array('pb', 'Passed balls; not available for the NA.'); jpfl_definitions[103] = new Array('pera', 'PERA is a pitcher\'s ERA as estimated from his peripheral statistics (EqH9, EqHR9, EqBB9, EqK9). Because it is not sensitive to the timing of batting events, PERA is less subject to luck than ERA, and is a better predictor of ERA going-forward than ERA itself. Like the rest of a pitcher\'s equivalent stats, his PERA is calibrated to an ideal league with an average PERA of 4.50. '); jpfl_definitions[104] = new Array('pitching/fielding breakdown', 'Described more completely in the 2002 Prospectus, the breakdown is a sequence of calculations designed to separate the pitching and fielding components of defense from each other. Certain events (walks, strikeouts, home runs) are considered to be entirely the responsibility of the pitcher. Errors and double plays are assumed to be entirely the domain of the fielders. Other hits and outs are assumed to be 75% fielding, 25% pitching.'); jpfl_definitions[105] = new Array('pk_ra', 'A pitcher\'s park-adjusted RA, expressed on a scale like ERA or RA. RA+ -- Park and league normalized Run Average. Similar to ERA+ found in Total Baseball, but based on RA rather than ERA. '); jpfl_definitions[106] = new Array('player profile', 'For Hitters:The Player Profile is a chart that evaluates a given hitter\'s primary production metrics (batting average, isolated power, unintentional walk rate, strikeout rate, and speed score) as a percentile compared to all major league hitters. For example, a player with an isolated power rating of 75% is superior in this category to three-quarters of all major leaguers. The player profile is based on the player\'s three previous seasons of performance, rather than his projection.
For Pitchers:
The Player Profile is a chart that evaluates a pitcher\'s performance in five categories: strikeout rate, walk rate, opponents\' isolated power (e.g. home run rate), hit rate on balls in play, and groundball-to-flyball ratio. The rates are presented as a percentile compared to all major league pitchers; for example, a player with a strikeout rating of 75% is superior in this category to three-quarters of all major leaguers. The player profile is based on the player\'s three previous seasons of performance, rather than his projection.
Note that the denominator for strikeout rate and walk rate as presented in the Player Profile is not innings pitched, but batters faced. This calculation is somewhat more accurate as pitchers differ in the number of batters they face per inning based on their on base average allowed. Note also that, for pitchers, the percentiles take into account whether the pitcher threw in a starting or relief role, as most pitchers post substantially better numbers in relief.'); jpfl_definitions[107] = new Array('pmlvr', 'Positional MLV rate. Runs/game contributed by a batter beyond what an average player at the same position would hit in a team of otherwise league-average hitters. Like MLVr, it is a rate stat. The comparable season total is PMLV. '); jpfl_definitions[108] = new Array('po', 'Putouts.'); jpfl_definitions[109] = new Array('pos', 'Player\'s position.'); jpfl_definitions[110] = new Array('position', 'For PECOTA, a player\'s Position is a consideration in identifying his comparables, as well as in calculating his VORP. The player\'s primary position as used by PECOTA is listed at the top of his forecast page; however, secondary and tertiary positions are also considered based on the relative amount of appearances that a player receives there. The position determination is made primarily based on the position(s) that a player appeared in his most recent season, with lesser consideration given to the position(s) he appeared other recent previous seasons. Both major league and minor league defensive appearances are considered in the determination of a player\'s position, but major league appearances are weighted more heavily. PECOTA considers LF, CF and RF to be separate positions.\n\nWhen listed numerically on our statistical reports, positions are: 1, pitcher; 2, catcher; 3, first base; 4, second base; 5, third base; 6, shortstop; 7, left field; 8, center field; 9, right field; 10, designated hitter; 11, pinch hitter; 12, pinch runner.'); jpfl_definitions[111] = new Array('praa', 'Pitcher-only runs above average. The difference between this and RAA is that RAA is really a total defense statistic, and PRAA tries to isolate the pitching component from the fielding portion. It relies on the pitching/fielding breakdown being run for the team, league, and individual. The individual pitching + defense total is compared to a league average pitcher + team average defense, and the difference is win-adjusted.'); jpfl_definitions[112] = new Array('prar', 'Pitcher-only runs above replacement. Similar to PRAA, except that the comparison is made to a replacement level player instead of average. The nominal RA for a replacement pitcher is 6.11 (the same ratio, compared to a 4.50 average, as a .230 EQA is to .260). This assumes that there is a 50/50 split between pitching and fielding. If the pitch/field split is less than that, as it was in the 1800s, the replacement ERA is reduced.'); jpfl_definitions[113] = new Array('pythagenpat', 'A modified form of Bill James\' Pythagorean formula. Instead of using a fixed exponent (2, 1.83), the Pythagenpat formula, developed by Smyth/Patriot, derives the exponent from the run environment - the more runs per game, the higher the exponent. It also improves upon a similar formula, the Pythagenport formula, developed by Clay Davenport and previously used in our Adjusted Standings calculations.'); jpfl_definitions[114] = new Array('r', 'Runs scored (for hitters) or allowed (pitchers).'); jpfl_definitions[115] = new Array('ra', 'Actual team runs allowed. Can also stand for Run Average--runs allowed, earned or otherwise, divided by innings pitched, times 9.'); jpfl_definitions[116] = new Array('ra_plus', 'Park and league normalized Run Average. Similar to ERA+ found in Total Baseball, but based on RA rather than ERA. '); jpfl_definitions[117] = new Array('raa', 'For Pitchers:
Runs above average. At its simplest, this would be the league runs per inning, times individual innings, minus individual runs allowed. However, we have gone one step beyond that, because being 50 runs above average in 1930, in the Baker Bowl, doesn\'t have the same win impact as being +50 in the 1968 Astrodome. The league runs per inning need to be adjusted for park and team hitting (and difficulty, for the alltime RAA), and then you can multiply by individual innings and subtract individual runs. Finally, that quantity needs to be win-adjusted. See win-adjustment.
For Fielders:
Runs above average at this position, similar to Palmer\'s Fielding Runs as far as interpretation is concerned.'); jpfl_definitions[118] = new Array('frar, frar2', 'Fielding runs above replacement. A fielding statistic, where a replacement player is meant to be approximately equal to the lowest-ranking player at that position, fielding wise, in the majors. Average players at different positions have different FRAR values, which depend on the defensive value of the position; an average shortstop has more FRAR than an average left fielder. '); jpfl_definitions[119] = new Array('frar2', 'See FRAR, FRAR2. FRAR2 incorporates adjustments for league difficulty and normalizes defensive statistics over time.'); jpfl_definitions[120] = new Array('rate', 'A way to look at the fielder\'s rate of production, equal to 100 plus the number of runs above or below average this fielder is per 100 games. A player with a rate of 110 is 10 runs above average per 100 games, a player with an 87 is 13 runs below average per 100 games, etc.'); jpfl_definitions[121] = new Array('rate2', 'See Rate. Rate2 incorporates adjustments for league difficulty and normalizes defensive statistics over time.'); jpfl_definitions[122] = new Array('rbi', 'Runs Batted In. '); jpfl_definitions[123] = new Array('reqa', 'Raw equivalent average, the first step towards building the EqA. In its fullest form, REQA = (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REQA gets converted into unadjusted equivalent runs, UEQR.'); jpfl_definitions[124] = new Array('rp', 'Runs Prevented. The extra number of runs an average pitcher would have allowed in the same number of innings pitched (adjusted for park and league). RP greater than zero indicates that the pitcher allowed fewer runs than an average pitcher (i.e. he\'s better than average). Negative RP indicates the pitcher allowed more runs than an average pitcher (i.e. he\'s worse than average).'); jpfl_definitions[125] = new Array('rpmlvr', 'Replacement level MLV rate. Runs/game contributed by a batter beyond what a replacement level player at the same position would hit in a team of otherwise league-average hitters. The comparable season total is RPMLV. It differs from VORPr and VORP only in that it is solely based on batting performance whereas VORP includes basestealing. '); jpfl_definitions[126] = new Array('rs', 'Actual runs scored by a team.'); jpfl_definitions[127] = new Array('sb', 'Stolen bases. Not recorded for any league between 1876 and 1885. On the catcher\'s fielding charts, not available prior to 1978.'); jpfl_definitions[128] = new Array('sf', 'Sacrifice flies. The statistical category of "sacrifice flies" did not exist prior to 1954; the concept had been around, on and off, since 1908, but had been always been part of the "SH" category. See SH. '); jpfl_definitions[129] = new Array('sh', 'Sacrifice hits. Not recorded prior to 1894. From 1894-1907, they were essentially the same as the modern rule - a bunt which advanced a baserunner. From 1908-25, they included what we would now call a sacrifice fly (sacrifices increase 25% between 1907 and 1908 as a result). From 1926-30, they included any fly ball on which a runner advanced, not just ones where the runner scored (another 25% increase in 1926). From 1931-38, sacrifice flies were eliminated completely (causing a 45% drop in sacrifices, and a 4-point decline in batting averages); that brought us back to the modern definition of sacrifice hit. In 1939 they re-introduced the run-scoring sac fly (returning to the 1908-25 rules), but eliminated it again in 1940. When sacrifice flies appeared again in 1954, they had their own category, so the rule for what we would call a sacrifice hit has not changed since 1940.'); jpfl_definitions[130] = new Array('sho', 'Shutouts.'); jpfl_definitions[131] = new Array('similarity index', 'Similarity Index is a composite of the similarity scores of all of a player\'s comparables. Similarity index is a gauge of the player\'s historical uniqueness; a player with a score of 50 or higher has a very common typology, while a player with a score of 20 or lower is historically unusual. For players with a very low similarity index, PECOTA expands its tolerance for dissimilar comparables until a meaningful sample size is established (see Comparable Players). '); jpfl_definitions[132] = new Array('similarity score', 'Similarity Score is a relative measure of a player\'s comparability. Its scale is very different from the Bill James similarity scores; a score of 100 is assigned to a perfect comparable, while a score of 0 represents a player who is meaningfully similar. Players can and frequently do receive negative similarity scores, and they are dropped from the analysis. A score above 50 indicates that a player is substantially comparable, and scores in excess of 70 are very unusual. The comparable player observations are weighted based on their similarity score in constructing a forecast. '); jpfl_definitions[133] = new Array('slg', 'Slugging percentage (hitters) or slugging percentage allowed (pitchers). Total bases divided by at-bats.'); jpfl_definitions[134] = new Array('snl', 'Support-Neutral Losses. the pitcher\'s expected number of losses assuming he had league-average support.'); jpfl_definitions[135] = new Array('snpct', 'SNW / (SNW+SNL)'); jpfl_definitions[136] = new Array('snva', 'Support-Neutral Value Added - wins above average added by the pitcher\'s performance.'); jpfl_definitions[137] = new Array('snw', 'Support-Neutral Wins. the pitcher\'s expected number of wins assuming he had league-average support.'); jpfl_definitions[138] = new Array('snwar', 'Support-Neutral Wins Above Replacement-level. the number of SNWs a pitcher has above what a .425 pitcher would get in the same number of (Support-Neutral) decisions.'); jpfl_definitions[139] = new Array('so', 'Strikeouts. For pitchers, batters struck out, for batters, times struck out.'); jpfl_definitions[140] = new Array('so9', 'Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[141] = new Array('speed score', 'Speed Score (SPD) is one of five primary production metrics used by PECOTA in identifying a hitter\'s comparables. It is based in principle on the Bill James speed score and includes five components: Stolen base percentage, stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities, triples, double plays grounded into as a percentage of opportunities, and runs scored as a percentage of times on base.
\nBeginning in 2006, BP has developed a proprietary version of Speed Score that takes better advantage of play-by-play data and ensures that equal weight is given to the five components. In the BP formulation of Speed Score, an average rating is exactly 5.0. The highest and lowest possible scores are 10.0 and 0.0, respectively, but in practice most players fall within the boundary between 7.0 (very fast) and 3.0 (very slow). '); jpfl_definitions[142] = new Array('standard league', 'The "standard league" is a mythical construction, in which all statistics have been adjusted for easy comparison. Its primary features are that runs scored is 4.5 runs per game; equivalent average is .260; and the pythagorean exponent is exactly 2.00.'); jpfl_definitions[143] = new Array('stolen base percentage', 'In PECOTA, stolen base attempts as a percentage of times on first base. '); jpfl_definitions[144] = new Array('stuff', 'A rough indicator of the pitcher\'s overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 - 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) - 3 * EqBB9 - 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0} '); jpfl_definitions[145] = new Array('strikeout rate', 'Strikeouts per plate appearance.'); jpfl_definitions[146] = new Array('strk%', 'Percentage of pitches thrown for strikes.'); jpfl_definitions[147] = new Array('sv', 'Saves.'); jpfl_definitions[148] = new Array('tbf', 'Total batters faced. '); jpfl_definitions[149] = new Array('tea', 'Team.'); jpfl_definitions[150] = new Array('team', 'As used in most places (including the PECOTA cards), Team is the three letter abbreviation for a major league, minor league, or foreign team.'); jpfl_definitions[151] = new Array('team hitting adjustment', 'An adjustment made for hitters, to account for not having to face their own pitchers. Using pitching stats, (league R * pf - team R), divided by (league IP - team IP), divided by park-adjusted league runs per inning.'); jpfl_definitions[152] = new Array('team pitching adjustment', 'An adjustment made for pitchers, to account for not having to face their own team\'s batters. Using batting stats, (league runs * pf - team runs), divided by (league PA - team PA), divided by league runs per plate appearance * pf.'); jpfl_definitions[153] = new Array('tm', 'Team.'); jpfl_definitions[154] = new Array('total bases', 'Hits plus doubles plus two times triples plus three times home runs.'); jpfl_definitions[155] = new Array('trend', 'Trend identifies players who demonstrate dramatic changes from their Baseline during their comparable year.For Hitters:
Hitters who improve their EqR/PA by at least 20% are identified by a green, upward-pointing arrow and contribute to a hitter\'s Breakout score; hitters whose EqR/PA decreases by at least 20% are identified by a red, downward-pointing arrow and contribute to a hitter\'s Collapse score.
For Pitchers:
Pitchers who improve their EqERA by at least 20% are identified by a green, upward-pointing arrow and contribute to a pitcher\'s Breakout score; pitchers whose EqERA increases by at least 25% are identified by a red, downward-pointing arrow and contribute to a pitcher\'s Collapse score. '); jpfl_definitions[156] = new Array('ueqr', 'Unadjusted Equivalent Runs; (2 * REQA/LgREQA - 1) * PA * LgR/LgPA. Analogous to runs created.'); jpfl_definitions[157] = new Array('ugueto effect', 'The Ugueto Effect is name given to the phenomenon in which very poor players are associated with very high PECOTA Breakout scores. It was named for Luis Ugueto. '); jpfl_definitions[158] = new Array('umpire', 'Umpire\'s name.'); jpfl_definitions[159] = new Array('unintentional walk rate', 'Unintentional Walk Rate (BB) is one of five primary production metrics used by PECOTA in identifying a player\'s comparables. It is defined as (BB-IBB)/PA. '); jpfl_definitions[160] = new Array('vorp', 'One of Prospectus\' oldest active metrics, Value Over Replacement Player considers offensive production, position, and plate appearances.'); jpfl_definitions[161] = new Array('vorpr', 'VORP rate. Runs/game contributed beyond what a replacement level player would produce. Also a rate stat. '); jpfl_definitions[162] = new Array('w', 'Refers to a pitcher\'s wins. In context of a team rather than an individual pitcher, refers to team wins.'); jpfl_definitions[163] = new Array('w1', '"First order wins." Pythagenport expected wins, based on RS and RA.'); jpfl_definitions[164] = new Array('w2', '"Second order wins." Pythagenport wins, based on RPA and RPA Against.'); jpfl_definitions[165] = new Array('w3', '"Third order wins." Pythagenport wins, based on AEQR and AEQRA.'); jpfl_definitions[166] = new Array('w_9', 'Walks allowed per 9 innings pitched '); jpfl_definitions[167] = new Array('warp', 'Wins Above Replacement Player is Prospectus\' attempt at capturing a player\' total value. This means considering playing time, position, batting, baserunning, and defense for batters, and role, innings pitched, and quality of performance for pitchers. '); jpfl_definitions[168] = new Array('warp2', 'Wins Above Replacement Player, with difficulty added into the mix. One of the factors that goes into league difficulty is whether or not the league uses a DH, which is why recent AL players tend to get a larger boost than their NL counterparts.'); jpfl_definitions[169] = new Array('warp3', 'WARP2, expanded to 162 games to compensate for shortened seasons. Initially, I was just going to use (162/season length) as the multiplier, but this seemed to overexpand the very short seasons of the 19th century. I settled on using (162/scheduled games) ** (2/3). So Ross Barnes\' 6.2 wins in 1873, a 55 game season, only gets extended to 12.8 WARP, instead of a straight-line adjustment of 18.3.
\n\nFor most hitters, at least, it is just that simple. Pitchers are treated differently, as we not only look at season length, but the typical number of innings thrown by a top starting pitcher that year (defined by the average IP of the top five in IP). We find it hard to argue that pitchers throwing 300 or more innings a year are suffering some sort of discrimination in the standings due to having shortened seasons. This why Walter Johnson has almost no adjustment between WARP2 and WARP3, while his contemporaries Cobb, Speaker, and Collins all gain around 7 or 8 wins.\n'); jpfl_definitions[170] = new Array('weighted mean', 'The Weighted Mean forecast incorporates all of the player\'s potential outcomes into a single average, weighted baed on projected playing time. In almost all cases, poor performances are associated with a reduced number of plate appearances. For that reason, they don\'t hurt a player\'s team quite as much as good performances help it; the weighting is designed to compensate for this effect (see also Jeremy Giambi Effect).
\nEXCEPTION: a player\'s projected PLAYING TIME (and therefore, his counting statistics that are incumbent on his playing time) is taken based on the median of his comparables\' performance, rather than the weighted mean. This is designed to mitigate the influence of catastrophic injuries, which are better represented by Attrition Rate. \nThis exception does NOT affect a player\'s WARP and VORP forecast, which are calculated per the weighted mean method, treating players who dropped out of the database as having zero WARP/VORP.'); jpfl_definitions[171] = new Array('win adjustment', 'A correction made to raw runs when converting them to a standard league to preserve their win value. Define an average team from season games played, league runs per game (9 innings or 27 outs, depending on whether you are using pitcher or batter data), and appropriate adjustments (park, team hitting/pitching, difficulty). "Team" is the effect of replacing one player on the average team with the player we are analyzing. Calculate the pythagorean exponent from (average + team) / games as your RPG entry; calculate winning percentage using the modified pythagorean formula. Now, go backwards, solve for "team" runs, given the winning percentage, an average team that scores 4.5 per game, and a pythagorean exponent of 2.00.'); jpfl_definitions[172] = new Array('wp', 'Wild pitches.'); jpfl_definitions[173] = new Array('xip', 'Adjusted Innings Pitched; used for the PRAA and PRAR statistics. There are two separate adjustments:1) Decisions. Innings are redistributed among the members of the team to favor those who took part in more decisions (wins, losses, and saves) than their innings alone would lead you to expect. The main incentive was to do a better job recognizing the value of closers than a simple runs above average approach would permit. XIPA for the team, after this adjustment, will equal team innings. First, adjust the wins and saves; let X = (team wins) / (team wins + saves). Multiply that by individual (wins + saves) to get an adjusted win total. Add losses. Multiply by team innings divided by team wins and losses.
2) Pitcher/fielder share. When I do the pitch/field breakdown for individuals, one of the stats that gets separated is innings. If an individual pitcher has more pitcher-specific innings than an average pitcher with the same total innings would have, than the difference is added to his XIPA. If a pitcher has fewer than average, the difference is subtracted. This creates a deliberate bias in favor of pitchers who are more independent of their fielders (the strikeout pitchers, basically), and against those who are highly dependent on their defenses (the Tommy John types).'); jpfl_definitions[174] = new Array('blob', 'Batters Left On Base'); jpfl_definitions[175] = new Array('roe', 'Reached On Error: when a batter reaches base as a direct result of a fielding error.'); jpfl_definitions[176] = new Array('loogy', 'Lefty One Out GuY - a left handed reliever specializing in getting one out, often in game critical situations'); jpfl_definitions[177] = new Array('rarp', 'Runs Above Replacement, Position-adjusted. A statistic that compares a hitter\'s Equivalent Run total to that of a replacement-level player who makes the same number of outs and plays the same position. A "replacement level" player is one who has 22.1 fewer EqR per 486 outs than the average for that position. For the overall league average (.260), that corresponds to a .230 EqA and a .351 winning percentage.
\n\nEssentially, this is the Equivalent Average analog of VORP.'); jpfl_definitions[178] = new Array('braa', 'Batting Runs Above Average is the number of runs a hitter produces relative to an average hitter, adjusted for park.'); jpfl_definitions[179] = new Array('babip', 'Batting Average on Balls In Play'); jpfl_definitions[180] = new Array('snlva', 'Support-Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added - like SNVA, but also adjusted for the MLVr of each batter the pitcher faced.'); jpfl_definitions[181] = new Array('snvar', 'like SNVA, but comparing to replacement level, rather than average. Replacement level is now being computed the same way in SNVA and in VORP (using the formulas from Keith Woolner\'s BP 2002 article).'); jpfl_definitions[182] = new Array('snlvar', 'like SNLVA, but comparing to replacement level, rather than average. Replacement level is now being computed the same way in SNVA and in VORP (using the formulas from Keith Woolner\'s BP 2002 article).'); jpfl_definitions[183] = new Array('flake', 'Standard deviation of per-start SNVA for each pitcher. This was previously shown as the variance, and was used to compute the "flakiest" pitchers. Standard deviation is just the square root of the variance, so these are equivalent.'); jpfl_definitions[184] = new Array('luck', 'Luck, as measured by the number of extra wins, and short losses the pitcher actually got, versus his expected record. LUCK = (W-E(W))+(E(L)-L)'); jpfl_definitions[185] = new Array('tmw', 'Team\'s expected wins in the games started by the pitcher. This will always add (with TmL) up to the pitcher\'s total games started.'); jpfl_definitions[186] = new Array('tml', 'Team\'s expected losses in the games started by the pitcher. This will always add (with TmW) up to the pitcher\'s total games started.'); jpfl_definitions[187] = new Array('rap', 'Runs Above Position: The number of Equivalent Runs this player produced, above what an average player at the same postion would have produced in the same number of outs.'); jpfl_definitions[188] = new Array('gr', 'Games in relief'); jpfl_definitions[189] = new Array('inb', 'Inherited baserunners. '); jpfl_definitions[190] = new Array('ins', 'Inherited runners who scored. A raw count of the number of runners who scored. This differs from INR, which subtracts INS from the expected number of inherited runners that would have scored given league average performance in the given situations.'); jpfl_definitions[191] = new Array('beq. rnrs', 'Bequeathed baserunners. More simply, the number of runners a pitcher left on base when exiting the game, including runners still on base put there by a preceding pitcher. '); jpfl_definitions[192] = new Array('beq_r', 'Bequeathed runners who scored.'); jpfl_definitions[193] = new Array('beq_runs_prevented', 'Bequeathed runs prevented from scoring. Measures how many more or fewer of the bequeathed baserunners subsequent relievers allowed to score than would be expected from league average performance in those situations. I.e., a positive figure means the following relievers kept more of the bequeathed runners from scoring than expected, negative means more of the runners scored than expected.'); jpfl_definitions[194] = new Array('apr', 'Adjusted Pitching Runs: Measures pitching production in terms of runs prevented above average. '); jpfl_definitions[195] = new Array('arp', 'Adjusted Runs Prevented: Runs prevented from scoring for relief pitchers based on the Run Expectancy Matrix.'); jpfl_definitions[196] = new Array('diff', 'How much a pitcher is underrated by Adjusted Pitching Runs (DIFF = ARP - APR).'); jpfl_definitions[197] = new Array('eqba', 'EqBA, or Equivalent Batting Average, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqBA of .270.\n\nWhile a major league hitter\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitter\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[198] = new Array('eqobp', 'EqOBP, or Equivalent On Base Percentage, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqOBP of .340.\n\nWhile a major league hitter\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitter\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[199] = new Array('eqslg', 'EqSLG, or Equivalent Slugging Percentage, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqSLG of .440.\n\nWhile a major league hitter\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitter\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[200] = new Array('eqmlvr', 'EqMLVr, or Equivalent rate-based Marginal Lineup Value, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqMLVr of .000.\n\nWhile a major league hitter\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitter\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[201] = new Array('snva/g', 'Support-Neutral Value Added (wins above average added by the pitcher\'s performance) per game pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[202] = new Array('snlva/g', 'Support-Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[203] = new Array('dp_opps', 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'); jpfl_definitions[204] = new Array('dp%', 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'); jpfl_definitions[205] = new Array('win%', 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '); jpfl_definitions[206] = new Array('e(win%)', 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'); jpfl_definitions[207] = new Array('leverage', 'Leverage measures how important the situations a reliever has been used in are. A leverage of 1.00 is the same importance as the start of a game. Leverage values below one represent situations that are less important than the start of a game (such as mopup innings in a blowout). Leverage values above one represent situations with more importance (such as a closer protecting a one-run lead with bases loaded in\nthe 9th inning).\n
\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005 (read an explanation by Dan Fox here), and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.');
jpfl_definitions[208] = new Array('wx', 'Expected wins added over an average pitcher. WX uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games. Win expectancy looks at the inning, score, and runners on base when the reliever entered the game, and determines the probability of the team winning the game from that point with an average pitcher. Then it looks at how the reliever actually did, and how that changes the probability of winning. The difference between how the reliever improved the chances of winning and how an average pitcher would is his WX.');
jpfl_definitions[209] = new Array('winexpl', 'Expected wins added over an average pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters faced. WXL factors in the MLVr of the actual batters faced by the relievers. Then, like WX, WXL uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games.');
jpfl_definitions[210] = new Array('winexpr', 'Expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher. WXR uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games, similar to WX. However, instead of comparing the pitcher\'s performance to an average pitcher, he is compared to a replacement level pitcher to determine WXR.');
jpfl_definitions[211] = new Array('wxrl', 'Expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters. WXRL combines the individual adjustments for replacement level (WXR) and quality of the opposing lineup (WXL) to the basic WX calculation.');
jpfl_definitions[212] = new Array('netdp', 'The number of additional double plays generated versus an average player with the same number of opportunities. Negative NET DP indicates that fewer double plays than average were produced.');
jpfl_definitions[213] = new Array('bullpen_support', 'The number of additional runs charged to the starting pitcher that his bullpen allowed to score after he left the game, compared to an average bullpen. Negative Pen Support means the bullpen prevented more runs from scoring than an average pen (i.e. the pitcher\'s ERA looks better than it should because of good bullpen support).');
jpfl_definitions[214] = new Array('winexp', 'The probability of winning the current game, given some\ninformation about how many runs each team has scored to a certain point in the game, how many outs there are, whether there are runners on base, and the strength of each team. Keith Woolner outlined a method for computing Win Expectancy given all of these parameters in BP 2005.');
jpfl_definitions[215] = new Array('rbi per runner', 'Number of runs a batter has driven in per runner on base during a batter\'s plate appearances. Defined as total baserunners/RBI (NB: Runners on base are other than the batter himself--RBI\'s resulting from a batter driving himself in on home runs are removed).');
jpfl_definitions[216] = new Array('mlv', 'Marginal Lineup Value, a measure of offensive production created by David Tate and further developed by Keith Woolner. MLV is an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers. Additional information on MLV can be found here.\n');
jpfl_definitions[217] = new Array('pmlv', 'Positional MLV. Runs contributed by a batter beyond what an average player at the same position would produce in a team of otherwise league-average hitters.');
jpfl_definitions[218] = new Array('rar', 'Runs Above Replacement. \n\nFor a fielder, it is simply Runs Above Replacement for the position, where a replacement-level fielder is determined to be about 20 runs below average for the position; the number varies slightly depending on the number of balls in play.');
jpfl_definitions[219] = new Array('baserunner state', 'Indication of who is on base, used to calculate Win Expectancy. An unoccupied base is designated with a \'0\', and an occupied base is designated with the number of the base (1=first base, 2=second base, 3= third base). All bases are represented by a three-digit string. For example, 000=bases empty, while 103=runners on first and third.');
jpfl_definitions[220] = new Array('base-out state', 'Refers to the Baserunner State combined with the number of\nouts in the current half inning, used to calculate Win Expectancy. For example, \'2-103\' indicates two outs with runners on first and third.');
jpfl_definitions[221] = new Array('rpi', 'Runs Per Inning. RPI is the average number of runs scored per inning by a given team or lineup, used to calculate Win Expectancy. RPI is a measure of the strength of a team\'s offense (or conversely, the strength of the opposing team\'s pitching staff).');
jpfl_definitions[222] = new Array('r1', 'Runner on first. In the RBI opportunity report, refers to the number of times a batter came to the plate with a runner at first base.');
jpfl_definitions[223] = new Array('r2', 'Runner on second. In the RBI opportunity report, refers to the number of times the batter came to the plate with a runner at second base.');
jpfl_definitions[224] = new Array('r3', 'Runner on third. In the RBI opportunity report, refers to the number of times the batter came to the plate with a runner at third base.');
jpfl_definitions[225] = new Array('h', 'Hits, or hits allowed.');
jpfl_definitions[226] = new Array('1b', 'For hitters: Singles\n
For pitchers: Singles Allowed\n
For positions: First Baseman');
jpfl_definitions[227] = new Array('maxpap', 'The maximum amount of Pitcher Abuse Points a pitcher has accumulated in a single start.');
jpfl_definitions[228] = new Array('tmwn%', 'Team\'s expected winning percentage in the games started by the pitcher.');
jpfl_definitions[229] = new Array('hr9', 'Home runs allowed per 9 innings pitched.');
jpfl_definitions[230] = new Array('so_bb', 'Strikeout to walk ratio: strikeouts divided by walks. ');
jpfl_definitions[231] = new Array('roe rate', 'Percentage of plate appearances that result in the batter reaching base on an error.');
jpfl_definitions[232] = new Array('so rate', 'Percentage of plate appearances that result in a strikeout.');
jpfl_definitions[233] = new Array('sb%', 'Percentage of stolen base attempts that are successful. ');
jpfl_definitions[234] = new Array('total runners', 'The total number of baserunners that have been on base for a batter\'s plate appearances.');
jpfl_definitions[235] = new Array('pitcher', 'On the custom statistic reports, the Pitcher column is a unique identification number for the respective pitcher.');
jpfl_definitions[236] = new Array('inh_runs_prevented', 'Inherited runs prevented from scoring. The expected number of inherited runners that would score in the reliever\'s appearances based upon league average performance, minus the actual number the reliever allowed to score.
\n\nA negative number means the reliever prevented fewer runs than average, while a positive number means the relieve prevented more runs than average.'); jpfl_definitions[237] = new Array('dp_percent', 'The percent of the time the double play opportunities (DP_OPPS) were converted into double plays (DP)'); jpfl_definitions[238] = new Array('sb_percent', 'Percentage of stolen base attempts that are successful.\n'); jpfl_definitions[239] = new Array('bbr', 'Walk rate: Percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk. '); jpfl_definitions[240] = new Array('batted_in', 'The number of runs a player has batted in other than himself.\n
\nBATTED_IN=RBI-HR'); jpfl_definitions[241] = new Array('translated batting statistics', 'Converts the player\'s batting statistics into a context that is the same for everybody. The major characteristics of the translation are: 1) that the translated EQA should equal the original, all-time adjusted EQA (within some margin for error); 2) that all seasons are expanded to a 162 game schedule; 3) that the statistics are adjusted to a season where an average hitter would have, per 650 PA: 589 AB, 153 H, 31 DB, 3 TP, 19 HR, 56 BB, 5 HBP, 113 SO, 10 SB, 5 CS, 79 R and 75 RBI. His rates would be a .260 batting average, .330 onbase average, .420 slugging average, and a .260 EQA with 76 EQR.'); jpfl_definitions[242] = new Array('translated pitching statistics', 'Converts all pitching statistics into a standard context. Pitchers are translated to a league where the top five pitchers (in innings) pitch an average of 275 innings. An average pitcher will have rates, per nine innings, of 9.00 hits, 1.00 home run, 3.00 walks, 6.00 strikeouts, and 4.50 earned runs. In the standard context, a replacement level pitcher has a 6.00; the translation is set up to conserve runs above replacement (alltime PRAR). Wins and losses are set using the pythagorean formula with average run support, with the pitcher\'s actual deviation from his real expected win percentage added back in.'); jpfl_definitions[243] = new Array('year', 'Year played.'); jpfl_definitions[244] = new Array('inr', 'Inherited runs prevented from scoring. The expected number of inherited runners that would score in the reliever\'s appearances based upon league average performance, minus the actual number the reliever allowed to score.'); jpfl_definitions[245] = new Array('bqb', 'Bequeathed baserunners'); jpfl_definitions[246] = new Array('bqs', 'Blown Quality Start'); jpfl_definitions[247] = new Array('bqr', 'Bequeathed runs prevented from scoring.'); jpfl_definitions[248] = new Array('fra', 'Fair Run Average (FRA) is scaled to run average and measures not only what a pitcher did, but also when he did it. Adjustments are made for defensive quality. '); jpfl_definitions[249] = new Array('stars & scrubs chart', 'The Stars & Scrubs Chart represents the probability that a player will demonstrate a given level of performance over the course of his next five seasons.
\nIn particular, for hitters:\n\'Superstar\' performance represents an EqA of .300 or better.\n\'Star\' performance represents an EqA of between .280 and .300\n\'Regular\' performance represents an EqA of between .250 and .280\n\'Fringe\' performance represents an EqA of between .230 and .250\n\'Scrub\' performance represents an EqA worse than .230\n\'Drop\' represents the player\'s Drop Rate - the probability that the player will drop out of the league entirely.\n\nNote that these thresholds ARE adjusted for a player\'s defensive position. A shortstop would need an EqA of about .290 to be considered a \'Star\' performer, while a right fielder would need an EqA of .310.\n\nSimilarly, for pitchers:\n\n\'Superstar\' performance represents an EqERA of 3.25 or better.\n\'Star\' performance represents an EqERA of between 3.25 and 4.00\n\'Regular\' performance represents an EqERA of between 4.00 and 5.00\n\'Fringe\' performance represents an EqERA of between 5.00 and 5.50\n\'Scrub\' performance represents an EqERA worse than 5.50\n\'Drop\' represents Drop Rate - the probability that the player will drop out of the league entirely.\n\nA small adjustment is made for starters versus relief pitchers, analagous to the positional adjustment described above.'); jpfl_definitions[250] = new Array('spd', 'Abbreviation for Speed Score as used in PECOTA cards.'); jpfl_definitions[251] = new Array('career path analysis', 'Career Path Analysis is the name for a chart on a player\'s PECOTA card. The solid, curved lines represent a player\'s VORP at his 90th, 75th, 60th, 50th (Median), 40th, 25th and 10th percentile levels of performance over the course of his next five seasons. All of these lines appear in BLUE, except for a player\'s Median/50th percentile forecast, which appears in RED.\nThe dashed YELLOW line represents a player\'s Weighted Mean VORP forecast. Because of the Jeremy Giambi Effect (the correlation between quality of performance and playing time), the Weighted Mean forecast line will usually be somewhat more favorable than the Median forecast line, particularly for players with highly volatile forecasts (lots of \'upside\').\nNote that players who drop out of a player\'s comparables set are represented on the Career Path Anaylsis chart as having a VORP of 0.'); jpfl_definitions[252] = new Array('jeremy giambi effect', 'The Jeremy Giambi Effect is a name given to the correlation between playing time and quality of performance. The Jeremy Giambi Effect has important implications for understanding a player\'s PECOTA forecast.\nFollowing are Giambi\'s plate appearances and OPS for each year of his major league career\nYear PA OPS\n1998 70 .739\n1999 336 .741\n2000 302 .761\n2001 443 .841\n2002 397 .919\n2003 156 .696\nNote that the correlation between Giambi\'s PA and OPS is very strong (r=.72). He played more often when he played more effectively, and less so when he played less effectively. Eventually, his performance became so poor that he could no longer secure any major league playing time at all.\n\n\n'); jpfl_definitions[253] = new Array('defense', 'Defense, as listed in a player\'s PECOTA card, provides the player\'s number of defensive games played, primary position, and fielding runs above average (FRAA) with a given team in a given season.\nAlthough only a player\'s primary defensive position is listed on a player\'s PECOTA card, the system considers his performance at secondary positions as well in making its forecasts.'); jpfl_definitions[254] = new Array('out of baseball', '\'Out of Baseball\' is the tag assigned to a player\'s five-year forecast when his Drop Rate in that season exceeds 66.7%. That is, we do not list a player\'s forecast line when it is substantially more likely than not that he will not be playing professional baseball.\nEven if a player receives the dreaded \'Out of Baseball\' tag, he can still accumulate residual WARP and VORP value based on those comparables that do remain in the league, as accounted for in his Valuation metrics.'); jpfl_definitions[255] = new Array('gb%', 'Groundball Percentage. The number of groundballs that a pitcher allows as a percentage of all balls hit into play. Our definition of GB% does not count line drives or popups as groundballs, and considers all batted balls put into play, not just those that result in outs. Because of this definition, the league average GB% is somewhat lower than than what may be listed in other venues, or about 44%.'); jpfl_definitions[256] = new Array('owarp', 'A player\'s offensive wins above replacement, as listed on his PECOTA card. Analagous to BRAR.'); jpfl_definitions[257] = new Array('dwarp', 'A player\'s defensive wins above replacement, as listed on his PECOTA card, and accounting for the value of his position and the quality of his defense. Analagous to FRAR.'); jpfl_definitions[258] = new Array('tot warp', 'Total WARP (Wins Above Replacement) as listed on his PECOTA card, considering both a player\'s offensive and defensive contributions. See WARP1.'); jpfl_definitions[259] = new Array('valuation', 'As listed in a player\'s PECOTA card, a series of metrics designed to evaluate a player\'s value to his team going forward. See individual entries for detail.'); jpfl_definitions[260] = new Array('morp', 'Marginal Value Above Replacement Player was as introduced in this article. It was updated in this article and this article. \n\n
It is set to MORP = $5.0*WARP3 for 2010. Subsequent years can be estimated at about 8% inflation. The benefit of our new MORP formula is that it adjusts for the facts that (1) Draft Picks are part of the cost of Free Agents, (2) Free Agents typically under-perform their projections, and (3) Deals signed before the off-season are part of the labor market.
'); jpfl_definitions[261] = new Array('peak', 'PEAK refers to a series of metrics designed to evaluate a player\'s value in some statistic - most often WARP or non-negative WARP (used by UPSIDE calculations) - over a series of consecutive seasons.'); jpfl_definitions[262] = new Array('upside', 'UPSIDE is determined by evaluating the performance of a player\'s top-20 PECOTA comparables. If a comparable player turned in a performance better than league average, including both his batting and fielding performance, then his wins above average (WARP minus replacement value) are counted toward his UPSIDE. A base of two times wins above average is used for position players, and an adjustment is made to pitcher values such that they are comparable. If the player was worse than average in a given season, or he dropped out of the database, the performance is counted as zero.'); jpfl_definitions[263] = new Array('whip', 'Walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[264] = new Array('five-year warp', 'The Five-Year WARP forecast measures a player\'s projected wins above replacement. For position players, this value is subdivided into batting wins, and defensive wins.\nAs time progresses, certain of the player\'s comparables will drop from the dataset entirely. In some cases, this is the result of a comparable player not yet having appeared in the comparable year in question. These players are dropped from the average for the season in question without any prejudicial effect. In other cases, a hitter has completed his comparable year, but did not record any plate appearances as a result of injury, retirement, demotion, and so on. These players are retained in the wins above replacement calculation, but are assigned a value of zero. (These comparables also contribute to a player\'s Drop Rate). Because of this convenient method for handling comparables who disappear from the dataset, the Five-Year Value forecast is the best way to evaluate a player\'s value going forward.'); jpfl_definitions[265] = new Array('five-year performance', 'The Five-Year Performance forecast measures a hitter\'s forecast EqA or a pitcher\'s EqERA at various percentiles (90th, 75th, 60th, 50th, 40th, 25th and 10th) over the course of the next five seasons. The percentile forecasts are indicated by solid lines, usually in BLUE, except for his median/50th percentile forecast which is indicated in RED. Also listed is the player\'s weighted mean forecast in that category, indicated with a dashed YELLOW line.\nUnlike the Five-Year WARP forecast, the Performance forecast has no convenient way to adjust for dropped comparables, and so it simply ignores them. For this reason, the Performance forecast may be misleading for players whose comparables have a high attrition rate. (See also Jeremy Giambi Effect). '); jpfl_definitions[266] = new Array('five-year attrition', 'The Five-Year Attrition forecast measures a player\'s Attrition Rate and Drop Rate over the forthcoming five seasons. These forecasts consider only players who have completed the comparable year in question.'); jpfl_definitions[267] = new Array('nsb', 'Net Stolen Bases, or SB - CS.'); jpfl_definitions[268] = new Array('gbpct', 'Ground Ball percentage.'); jpfl_definitions[269] = new Array('sssim', 'A comprehensive Scoresheet valuation metric designed by Ben Murphy, as explained in this article.'); jpfl_definitions[270] = new Array('rbirhr', 'RBI + R - HR. Used in fantasy baseball to approximate runs created in a simple fashion.'); jpfl_definitions[271] = new Array('pa_rob', 'Plate appearances with runners on base'); jpfl_definitions[272] = new Array('r1_bi', 'Runners on first base batted in'); jpfl_definitions[273] = new Array('r2_bi', 'Runners on second base batted in'); jpfl_definitions[274] = new Array('r3_bi', 'Runners on third base batted in'); jpfl_definitions[275] = new Array('rob', 'Runners On Base: the number of runners on base during a batter\'s plate appearances.'); jpfl_definitions[276] = new Array('obi', 'Others Batted In -- runs batted in, except for the batter driving himself in via a home run. Equal to RBI-HR'); jpfl_definitions[277] = new Array('r1bi%', 'Percentage of runners on first batted in'); jpfl_definitions[278] = new Array('r2bi%', 'Percentage of runners on second base batted in'); jpfl_definitions[279] = new Array('r3bi%', 'Percentage of runners on third base batted in'); jpfl_definitions[280] = new Array('obi%', 'Others Batted In Percentage. Percentage of all runners on base batted in.'); jpfl_definitions[281] = new Array('tob', 'Times On Base -- times reaching base by hit, walk, or hit by pitch. Reaching by error is sometimes included, depending on the context.'); jpfl_definitions[282] = new Array('fc', 'Fielder\'s Choice'); jpfl_definitions[283] = new Array('interference', 'Number of times catcher interference was called'); jpfl_definitions[284] = new Array('sit_dp', 'Situations where a Double Play was possible -- a plate appearance with a runner on first base and less than two outs'); jpfl_definitions[285] = new Array('ura', 'Unearned Run Average. Equal to (Unearned Runs)/(Innings Pitched)*9'); jpfl_definitions[286] = new Array('h_ip', 'Hits per inning pitched'); jpfl_definitions[287] = new Array('bb_ip', 'Walks per inning pitched'); jpfl_definitions[288] = new Array('so_ip', 'Strikeouts per inning pitched'); jpfl_definitions[289] = new Array('hr_ip', 'Home Runs per Inning Pitched'); jpfl_definitions[290] = new Array('br9', 'Baserunners per nine innings'); jpfl_definitions[291] = new Array('ubbr', 'Unintentional base on balls rate (UBB per plate appearance).'); jpfl_definitions[292] = new Array('ibbr', 'Intentional base on balls rate (per plate appearance)'); jpfl_definitions[293] = new Array('hitr', 'Hit Rate -- hits per plate appearance'); jpfl_definitions[294] = new Array('b1r', 'Singles per plate appearance'); jpfl_definitions[295] = new Array('b2r', 'Doubles per plate appearance'); jpfl_definitions[296] = new Array('b3r', 'Triples per plate appearance'); jpfl_definitions[297] = new Array('hrr', 'Home Run Rate -- homers per plate appearance'); jpfl_definitions[298] = new Array('hbpr', 'Hit By Pitch Rate -- HBP per plate appearance'); jpfl_definitions[299] = new Array('sfr', 'Simple Fielding Runs -- The runs above average contributed by a defender. SFR is a defensive metric currently in a "beta" form based on Retrosheet-style play by play data. SFR for infielders is calculated differently than that for outfielders and for outfielders the metric is park-adjusted.'); jpfl_definitions[300] = new Array('shr', 'Sacrifice Hit Rate -- Sacrifices per plate appearance'); jpfl_definitions[301] = new Array('roer', 'Reached On Error Rate -- reaching on error per plate appearance.'); jpfl_definitions[302] = new Array('sor', 'Strikeout Rate -- Strikeouts per plate appearance'); jpfl_definitions[303] = new Array('outr', 'Out Rate. Batting outs per plate appearance.'); jpfl_definitions[304] = new Array('nsor', 'Non-Strikeout Out Rate -- batting outs (other than by strikeout, i.e. outs on balls in play) per plate appearance.'); jpfl_definitions[305] = new Array('popup_percent', 'Percentage of batted balls that were classified as popups (percentage is based on the number of batted balls that were classified at all -- batted balls which do not have a known type are omitted)'); jpfl_definitions[306] = new Array('linedr_percent', 'Percentage of batted balls that were classified as line drives (percentage is based on the number of batted balls that were classified at all -- batted balls which do not have a known type are omitted)'); jpfl_definitions[307] = new Array('gb_percent', 'Percentage of batted balls that were classified as ground balls (percentage is based on the number of batted balls that were classified at all -- batted balls which do not have a known type are omitted)'); jpfl_definitions[308] = new Array('fb', 'Batted balls that were classified as fly balls'); jpfl_definitions[309] = new Array('runr', 'Runs scored Rate -- Runs scored (typically by a player) per plate appearance'); jpfl_definitions[310] = new Array('rbir', 'RBI Rate -- RBI per plate appearance'); jpfl_definitions[311] = new Array('avg_pap', 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started'); jpfl_definitions[312] = new Array('max_pap', 'Maximum Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) in a single start'); jpfl_definitions[313] = new Array('tot_pap', 'Total Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) accumulated'); jpfl_definitions[314] = new Array('avg_np', 'Average number of pitches per start'); jpfl_definitions[315] = new Array('max_np', 'Maximum number of pitches in a start'); jpfl_definitions[316] = new Array('tot_np', 'Total number of pitches thrown as a starter.'); jpfl_definitions[317] = new Array('winexprl', 'Win Expectation above Replacement, Lineup-adjusted.'); jpfl_definitions[318] = new Array('primary_pos_label', 'Primary position played (position where the most PA were accumulated).\n\nPosition numbers: 1=pitcher, 2=catcher, 3=first base, 4=second base, 5=third base, 6=shortstop, 7=left field, 8=center field, 9=right field, 10=designated hitter, 11=pinch hitter, 12=pinch runner. The label "0" can apply to a pinch-hitter (or -runner) when the team bats around, coming to that lineup spot for the second time in an inning.'); jpfl_definitions[319] = new Array('leadoff_pa', 'Number of times the player led off an inning.'); jpfl_definitions[320] = new Array('tp', 'Triple plays'); jpfl_definitions[321] = new Array('end_game', 'Number of times the player had the last plate appearance of the game.'); jpfl_definitions[322] = new Array('tbp', 'Total Base Percentage -- total bases per plate appearance (as opposed to slugging average, SLG, which is total bases per at-bat)'); jpfl_definitions[323] = new Array('bpf', 'Batting Park Factor.'); jpfl_definitions[324] = new Array('pa_percent', 'The percentage of the team\'s total plate appearances that this player had.'); jpfl_definitions[325] = new Array('outs_eq', 'Equivalent Outs.'); jpfl_definitions[326] = new Array('opp_qual_avg', 'Opponent\'s Quality, Batting Average -- the aggregate batting average of all batters faced (by a pitcher), or allowed by all pitchers faced (for a batter)'); jpfl_definitions[327] = new Array('opp_qual_obp', 'Opponent\'s Quality, On-Base Percentage -- the aggregate onbase percentage of all batters faced (by a pitcher), or allowed by all pitchers faced (for a batter)'); jpfl_definitions[328] = new Array('opp_qual_slg', 'Opponent\'s Quality, Slugging Average -- the aggregate slugging average of all batters faced (by a pitcher), or allowed by all pitchers faced (for a batter)'); jpfl_definitions[329] = new Array('runs_charged_during_app', 'Runs charged to a pitcher before he is removed from the game (i.e. excluding runners on base when he exited who may have been allowed to score by a subsequent pitcher)'); jpfl_definitions[330] = new Array('inh_runners_scored', 'Number of runners who were inherited by the pitcher (they were on base when he came into the game) and scored while the pitcher was in the game.'); jpfl_definitions[331] = new Array('beq_resp_runners', 'Bequeathed runners for which the pitcher is responsible. More simply, the number of runners a pitcher left on base when exiting the game, excluding runners still on base put there by a preceding pitcher.'); jpfl_definitions[332] = new Array('relp', 'Relief Percentage -- positive relief decisions (saves and holds) divided by total relief decisions (saves, holds, blown saves)'); jpfl_definitions[333] = new Array('whole_innings', 'Whole innings -- complete innings started and finished by the pitcher (no fractional innings are counted)'); jpfl_definitions[334] = new Array('innings_finished', 'Innings completed by a pitcher'); jpfl_definitions[335] = new Array('fair_ra_relief', 'Fair Run Average in relief appearances.'); jpfl_definitions[336] = new Array('ppf', 'Pitching Park Factor.'); jpfl_definitions[337] = new Array('tto', 'Three True Outcomes -- home runs, walks, and strikeouts. Expressed as a rate stat, the formula is TTO% = ((HR+BB+SO) / PA) * 100%\n\nOriginally conceived of as an offbeat tribute to Rob Deer (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=724), the TTO celebrates batters who don\'t put the ball into play.
\n\nIronically, TTO gained some credence beyond it\'s novelty value with the development of Voros McCracken\'s DIPS theory that states that pitchers have little control over the outcomes of batted balls in play, and thus should be evaluated primarily on the basis of the strikeouts, walks, and home runs they allow.\n\nBP has awarded the TTO crown annually for several years. e.g. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4721');
jpfl_definitions[338] = new Array('obi_percent', 'Others Batted In Percentage. Percentage of all runners on base batted in.');
jpfl_definitions[339] = new Array('tb', 'Total bases - A home run is 4 total bases, a triple is 3, a double is 2, and a single is 1. Walks, steals, sacrifices, and other non-hit advancement do not count as a total base.');
jpfl_definitions[340] = new Array('missing_play', 'A result of a play missing from the BP databases.');
jpfl_definitions[341] = new Array('pitches', 'Number of pitches seen (batter) or thrown (pitcher)');
jpfl_definitions[342] = new Array('strikes', 'Number of strikes seen (batter) or thrown (pitcher)');
jpfl_definitions[343] = new Array('balls', 'Number of balls seen (batter) or thrown (pitcher)');
jpfl_definitions[344] = new Array('fb_percent', 'Percentage of batted balls that were classified as fly balls');
jpfl_definitions[345] = new Array('ground balls', 'Number of batted balls classified as ground balls');
jpfl_definitions[346] = new Array('gb', 'In player or team statistical context, batted balls that were classified as ground balls.\n
\nIn team standings context, Games Back. How far this team is behind the team leading the division. The formula is\n
\n((Division Leader\'s Wins - This team\'s Wins) + (This team\'s Losses - Division Leader\'s Losses)) / 2\n
\nThe Division Leader is the team with the highest team Wins minus team Losses. GB is traditionally expressed as a dash (-) for the division leader and a whole or half number for teams behind that team. For teams lagging the Division Leader, a win or a Division Leader Loss will reduce their GB by half a game.\n
\nGB is not recalculated for League or All MLB groupings; it always reflects a team\'s status relative to the leader of their division.\n');
jpfl_definitions[347] = new Array('linedr', 'Batted balls classified as line drives');
jpfl_definitions[348] = new Array('popup', 'Number of batted balls that were classified as popups');
jpfl_definitions[349] = new Array('pa_p', 'Plate appearances at the position of pitcher');
jpfl_definitions[350] = new Array('pa_c', 'Plate appearances at the position of catcher');
jpfl_definitions[351] = new Array('pa_1b', 'Plate appearances at the position of first base');
jpfl_definitions[352] = new Array('pa_2b', 'Plate appearances at the position of second base');
jpfl_definitions[353] = new Array('pa_ss', 'Plate appearances at the position of shortstop');
jpfl_definitions[354] = new Array('pa_3b', 'Plate appearances at the position of third base');
jpfl_definitions[355] = new Array('pa_lf', 'Plate appearances at the position of left field');
jpfl_definitions[356] = new Array('pa_rf', 'Plate appearances at the position of right field');
jpfl_definitions[357] = new Array('pa_cf', 'Plate appearances at the position of center field');
jpfl_definitions[358] = new Array('pa_dh', 'Plate appearances as a designated hitter');
jpfl_definitions[359] = new Array('pa_ph', 'Plate appearances as a pinch hitter');
jpfl_definitions[360] = new Array('pa_pr', 'Plate appearances as a pinch runner');
jpfl_definitions[361] = new Array('g_p', 'Games played at the position of pitcher');
jpfl_definitions[362] = new Array('g_c', 'Games played at the position of catcher');
jpfl_definitions[363] = new Array('g_1b', 'Games played at the position of first base');
jpfl_definitions[364] = new Array('g_2b', 'Games played at the position of second base');
jpfl_definitions[365] = new Array('g_ss', 'Games played at the position of shortstop');
jpfl_definitions[366] = new Array('g_3b', 'Games played at the position of third base');
jpfl_definitions[367] = new Array('g_lf', 'Games played at the position of left field');
jpfl_definitions[368] = new Array('g_cf', 'Games played at the position of center field');
jpfl_definitions[369] = new Array('g_rf', 'Games played at the position of right field');
jpfl_definitions[370] = new Array('g_dh', 'Games played at the position of designated hitter');
jpfl_definitions[371] = new Array('g_ph', 'Games played as a pinch hitter');
jpfl_definitions[372] = new Array('g_pr', 'Games played as a pinch runner');
jpfl_definitions[373] = new Array('leadoffr', 'Number of times a player led off an inning, as a rate of his total PA.');
jpfl_definitions[374] = new Array('endgamer', 'Rate version of END_GAME: percentage of the player\'s plate appearances that were the last PA of the game.');
jpfl_definitions[375] = new Array('pickoff', 'Number of times picked off');
jpfl_definitions[376] = new Array('r1bi_percent', 'Percentage of runners on first base batted in');
jpfl_definitions[377] = new Array('r2bi_percent', 'Percentage of runners on second base batted in');
jpfl_definitions[378] = new Array('r3bi_percent', 'Percentage of runners on third base batted in');
jpfl_definitions[379] = new Array('rookie', 'This indicates whether or not a player was a rookie during that season. To be a rookie, a player must have fewer than 130 at-bats and 50 innings pitched.');
jpfl_definitions[380] = new Array('ip_start', 'Innings pitched as a starting pitcher');
jpfl_definitions[381] = new Array('ip_relief', 'Innings pitched as a relief pitcher');
jpfl_definitions[382] = new Array('inh_score', 'Number of runners who were inherited by the pitcher (they were on base when he came into the game) and scored eventually. This includes runners who were on base before the pitcher entered the game and scored after the pitcher left the game.');
jpfl_definitions[383] = new Array('beq_scored', 'The number of runners a pitcher left on base when exiting the game who eventually scored. ');
jpfl_definitions[384] = new Array('winp', 'Winning percentage (wins / total decisions)');
jpfl_definitions[385] = new Array('t_winp', 'Team\'s expected winning percentage in games started by a pitcher');
jpfl_definitions[386] = new Array('snva_r', 'Rate of Support-Neutral Value Added');
jpfl_definitions[387] = new Array('snlva_r', 'Rate of Support-Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added');
jpfl_definitions[388] = new Array('snlvar_r', 'Rate of Support-Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added above replacement level');
jpfl_definitions[389] = new Array('beq_own_exp_r', 'Expected runs value from bequeathed runners for which the exiting pitcher is responsible');
jpfl_definitions[390] = new Array('beq_exp_r', 'Total expected run value from bequeathed runners (runners who are on base when the pitcher left his games).');
jpfl_definitions[391] = new Array('inh_exp_r', 'Total expected run value from inherited runners (runners who are on base when the reliever entered his games).');
jpfl_definitions[392] = new Array('last_inh_exp_r', 'Total expected run value of all inherited runners still on base when the inheriting pitcher is removed.');
jpfl_definitions[393] = new Array('beq_own_runs_prevented', 'Bequeathed baserunners of the exiting pitcher prevented from scoring. The difference between expected runs and scored runs. ');
jpfl_definitions[394] = new Array('nera', 'Normalized ERA');
jpfl_definitions[395] = new Array('delh', 'Delta-hits. The number of hits above or below what would be expected for this pitcher.');
jpfl_definitions[396] = new Array('stf', 'Stuff. A statistic developed by Clay Davenport that measures a pitcher\'s likelihood of success in the majors by analyzing his component rates.');
jpfl_definitions[397] = new Array('runners', 'Denotes position of runners on base. For example, 103 denotes runners on first and third');
jpfl_definitions[398] = new Array('exp_r_outs_0', 'Expected runs scored with zero outs');
jpfl_definitions[399] = new Array('exp_r_outs_1', 'Expected runs scored with one out');
jpfl_definitions[400] = new Array('exp_r_outs_2', 'Expected runs scored with two outs');
jpfl_definitions[401] = new Array('bpid', 'BP database ID');
jpfl_definitions[402] = new Array('rankfraa', 'Rank by Fielding Runs Above Replacement');
jpfl_definitions[403] = new Array('rankeqa', 'Rank by Equivalent Average');
jpfl_definitions[404] = new Array('rankeqk9', 'Rank by equivalent strikeouts per 9 innings');
jpfl_definitions[405] = new Array('rankwxrl', 'Rank by Wins Expected Above Replacement Player');
jpfl_definitions[406] = new Array('tie', 'Number of ties');
jpfl_definitions[407] = new Array('record', 'Win-Loss record for a particular team and run differential');
jpfl_definitions[408] = new Array('type', 'Type of team streak (Winning or Losing)');
jpfl_definitions[409] = new Array('streaks', 'Number of streaks of a particular length');
jpfl_definitions[410] = new Array('tm_bat', 'The team that is at bat (1=home, 0=away)');
jpfl_definitions[411] = new Array('exp_w_rundiff', 'Run differential (team at bat - team in field)');
jpfl_definitions[412] = new Array('fair_ra_start', 'Fair run average for innings by a starting pitcher. "Fair runs" differ from traditional assignment of runs in that a pitcher who leaves the game is charged with the expected run value of any bequeathed runners left on base, whether or not they eventually score.');
jpfl_definitions[413] = new Array('eqgar', 'Ground Advancement Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would be expected given the number and quality of baserunning opportunities. GAR is based on a multi-year Run Expectancy matrix and considers the following scenarios:
Here is an example of the Ground Advancement Runs spectrum based on the 2011 season:
\n\nExcellent - Emilio Bonifacio 6.45
\nGreat - Dexter Fowler 2.98
\nAverage - Roger Bernadina 0.01
\nPoor - Adrian Gonzalez -1.76
\nHorrendous - Ryan Howard -3.76\n\n');
jpfl_definitions[414] = new Array('beta', 'A measure of the relative volatility of a player\'s EqA or EqERA forecast, as determined from his comparables. The Beta for an average major league player is 1.00; players with Beta\'s higher than 1.00 have more volatile forecasts than others ("riskier"), while Betas lower than 1.00 represent less volatile forecasts ("less risky").\n
\nBetas are adjusted for the amount of playing time that a player is expected to receive. Thus, a player\'s Beta will not be higher simply because he\'s expected to receive less playing time (as a relief pitcher might as compared with a starter, for example), which naturally produces more variance because of higher sample sizes.\n\nBetas may be unreliable for players with few appropriate comparables.\n '); jpfl_definitions[415] = new Array('supervorp', 'As listed on a player\'s PECOTA card, SuperVORP is VORP with additional adjustments for the following:\n\n1) League difficulty. Players in a more difficult league (e.g. the American League) receive a boost in their SuperVORP to reflect their work against tougher competition.\n\n2) Defensive support (for pitchers). A pitcher\'s BABIP, and therefore his VORP, are affected by his defense. SuperVORP adjusts the pitcher\'s VORP by assuming he has a league average defense behind him.\n\n3) Fielding runs above average (FRAA) (for position players). The number of runs a player saves or subtracts with his glove, relative to league average, is added to his SuperVORP score. \n\nSuperVORP can be thought of as analogous to WARP, but with a higher threshold for replacement level.\n '); jpfl_definitions[416] = new Array('eqhar', 'Hit Advancement Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would have been expected given the number and quality of opportunities. HAR considers advancement from first on singles, second on singles, and first on doubles and is adjusted for park and based on a multi-year Run Expectancy Matrix.
Here is an example of the Hit Advancement Runs spectrum based on the 2011 season:
\n\nExcellent - Dexter Fowler 4.74
\nGreat - Ryan Braun 2.69
\nAverage - James Loney 0.00
\nPoor - Brett Wallace -2.54
\nHorrendous - Ryan Howard -5.66\n');
jpfl_definitions[417] = new Array('eqsbr', 'Equivalent Stolen Base Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would be expected given the number and quality of their baserunning opportunities. EqSBR is based on a multi-year Run Expectancy matrix and considers both stolen base attempts and pick-offs.
Here is an example of the Stolen Base Runs spectrum based on the 2011 season:
\n\nExcellent - Tony Campana 2.82
\nGreat - Dustin Pedroia 1.32
\nAverage - Brandon Phillips -0.01
\nPoor - Jason Bartlett -1.06
\nHorrendous - Jon Jay -1.91\n');
jpfl_definitions[418] = new Array('eqaar', 'Air Advancement Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would be expected given the number and quality of their baserunning opportunities. AAR is based on a multi-year Run Expectancy matrix, is park adjusted, and considers the following scenarios:
Here is an example of the Air Advancement Runs spectrum based on the 2011 season:
\n\nExcellent - Alex Gordon 2.68
\nGreat - Robinson Cano 1.21
\nAverage - Brian Bogusevic 0.00
\nPoor - Yorvit Torrealba -1.43
\nHorrendous - Adrian Gonzalez -2.28\n\n');
jpfl_definitions[419] = new Array('jaws', 'Abbreviation for "Jaffe WARP Score." System invented by Jay Jaffe to assess a player\'s worthiness for enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. Equal to the average of a player\'s peak WARP and total career WARP. Jaffe used the system before, but the term was coined here.\n
\nThe methodology is explained in full here.'); jpfl_definitions[420] = new Array('pade', 'Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: Measures the percentage of balls in play that a team\'s defense converts into outs, with a park adjustment factor.'); jpfl_definitions[421] = new Array('pecota', 'Stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA is BP\'s proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA:
\n\n1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
\n2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player\'s true talent level;
\n3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players\' stats changed over time.
\n\nCheck out the PECOTA section of the glossary for more on the system\'s intricacies. ');
jpfl_definitions[422] = new Array('jaws methodology', 'The very self-consciously named Jaffe WARP Score system, which is designed to determine how a Hall of Famer or Hall of Fame candidate measures up to his enshrined peers at his position with regards to his regular season pitching, hitting, and fielding contributions. The goal of JAWS is to identify players who are above-average candidates for Hall of Fame enshrinement in these respects.');
jpfl_definitions[423] = new Array('qera', 'QuikERA (QERA) estimates what a pitcher\'s ERA should be based solely on his strikeout rate, walk rate, and GB/FB ratio.');
jpfl_definitions[424] = new Array('dxl', 'Days eXpected Lost -- used as an estimate of how many days a player is expected to miss due to an injury or illness. For starters, five days equals one start.');
jpfl_definitions[425] = new Array('injury cost', 'A "quick and dirty" measure of the lost value due to injuries. The formula used is MORP divided by 180 multiplied by days expected lost.');
jpfl_definitions[426] = new Array('fot', '"Front Office Type" - a catchall for any denizen of baseball\'s various front offices, including but not limited to General Managers, Asst. GMs, scouting or player development, etc.');
jpfl_definitions[427] = new Array('pyth o/u', 'Pythagorean Over/Under. Compute the team\'s Pythagenpat wins using the Smith/Patriot methodology as indicated in the Pythagenpat glossary entry. Subtract this number from the team\'s actual wins.\n
\nA positive result indicates that a team is outplaying, or "over", its expected record; a negative result indicates a team is lagging, or "under", its expected record.\n
\nPyth O/U is not a good indicator of team quality; a mediocre team can easily have a better Pyth O/U than a great team. Rather, in the abstract a team with a significantly negative Pyth O/U could warrant consideration as a slightly better future bet than their actual record would indicate, and the reverse is true for a team with a significantly positive O/U.');
jpfl_definitions[428] = new Array('rs/g', 'Runs Scored per Game.');
jpfl_definitions[429] = new Array('pct', 'Winning percentage of a team. Computed as team Wins divided by Games played, and traditionally expressed in three digit decimal form.');
jpfl_definitions[430] = new Array('ra/g', 'Runs Allowed per Game.');
jpfl_definitions[431] = new Array('diff/g', 'Difference between RS/G and RA/G. A positive number means a team is scoring more runs than they\'re allowing on average.');
jpfl_definitions[432] = new Array('hit list rank', 'The team\'s ranking in the latest Prospectus Hit List article. Unlike many power rankings, the Prospectus Hit List rankings are determined objectively via the Hit List Factor, an average of a team\'s actual winning percentage and the three Pythagenpat winning percentages from our Adjusted Standings report. The first-order winning percentage is calculated via actual runs scored and runs allowed, the second-order winning percentage uses Equivalent Runs scored and allowed, which are calculated from run components (hits, walks, total bases, stolen bases, outs, etc.) and adjusted for park and league scoring levels, and the third-order winning percentage uses Adjusted Equivalent Runs scored and allowed, which adjust the Equivalent Runs totals for the quality of each team\'s opponents\' pitching and defense. You can find more information on the process here.');
jpfl_definitions[433] = new Array('rnk', 'In Team Audit or Playoff Odds Report context, the rank of a team in the grouping and sort currently active.');
jpfl_definitions[434] = new Array('hlf', 'Hit List Factor: An average of a team\'s actual winning percentage and the three Pythagenpat winning percentages from our Adjusted Standings Report, (as well as the Depth Chart win percentage early in the season).');
jpfl_definitions[435] = new Array('fip', 'Fielding Independent Pitching converts a pitcher\'s three true outcomes into an earned run average-like number. The formula is (13*HR+3*(HBP+BB)-2*K)/IP, plus a constant (usually around 3.2) to put it on the same scale as earned run average.');
jpfl_definitions[436] = new Array('pow', 'Power Percentage, a statistic created by Julien Headley, is described here. POW describes extra-base power on contact, in terms similar to Isolated Power. The formulation used in the Minor League Statistics and Translations page is POW=(2B+(2*3B)+(3*HR))/(AB-SO).');
jpfl_definitions[437] = new Array('brr', 'Baserunning Runs measures a player\'s contributions on the basepaths based on activity during the run of play, on stolen base attempts, from tag-up situations, and other advancement opportunities. ');
jpfl_definitions[438] = new Array('eqoar', 'Other Advancement Runs. Measures the number of runs contributed by a player\'s advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented. Other Advancement takes into consideration a player\'s opportunities and advancement on the basepaths due to wild pitches and passed balls. The run value of this advancement is based on a multi-year run expectancy matrix and park-adjusted.
Here is an example of the Other Advancement Runs spectrum based on the 2011 season:
\n\nExcellent - Bobby Abreu 0.92
\nGreat - Angel Pagan 0.40
\nAverage - Drew Stubbs 0.05
\nPoor - Juan Uribe -0.28
\nHorrendous - Michael Cuddyer -0.72\n');
jpfl_definitions[439] = new Array('eqa1', 'Equivalent Average, as taken from the Davenport Translation (DT) Player Cards. EqA1 is EqA adjusted for the season in which the performance occurred, as opposed to EqA2, which is adjusted for comparisons across multiple seasons or eras. For example, if you wanted to compare Albert Pujols\'s 2008 performance against those of other players in the 2008 season, you would reference his EqA1; if you wanted to compare Pujols\'s 2008 against Lou Gehrig\'s seasons in the 1920s and 30s, you would reference Pujols\'s and Gehrig\'s respective EqA2s.');
jpfl_definitions[440] = new Array('hold', 'While definitions vary, the most common ones credit a pitcher with a "Hold" when he a) enters the game with a lead, b) records at least one out, and c) leaves the game still in the lead.');
jpfl_definitions[441] = new Array('svhold', 'Saves + Holds');
jpfl_definitions[442] = new Array('eqavg', 'Equivalent Batting Average, sometimes also referred to as Translated or Normalized Batting Average. This is a player\'s batting average, adjusted for ballpark, league difficulty, and era, and calibrated to an ideal major league where the overall EqBA is .260. While a major league hitter\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitter\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly.');
jpfl_definitions[443] = new Array('pfx', 'A component of the Pitch F/X dataset, PFX refers to the horizontal movement, in inches, of a pitch thrown. On an individual basis, righthanded pitchers will have negative horizontal movement on a fastball with lefties posting positive numbers. In larger studies, this data is normalized to avoid any type of skewed results.');
jpfl_definitions[444] = new Array('pfz', 'A component of the Pitch F/X dataset, PFZ is categorized as the vertical movement, in inches, of a pitch thrown. This is often referred to as the rise or sink on a pitch. The greater the number, the more rise. Sinkerballers and those with two-seam fastballs strive for very low PFZ marks.');
jpfl_definitions[445] = new Array('t_ab', 'Translated at-bats: number of at-bats adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[446] = new Array('t_h', 'Translated hits: number of hits adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[447] = new Array('t_b2', 'Translated doubles: number of doubles adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[448] = new Array('t_b3', 'Translated triples: number of triples adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[449] = new Array('t_hr', 'Translated home runs: number of home runs adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[450] = new Array('t_bb', 'Translated walks: number of walks adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[451] = new Array('t_so', 'Translated strikeouts: number of strikeouts adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[452] = new Array('t_hbp', 'Translated hit by pitch: number of times hit by pitch adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[453] = new Array('t_sb', 'Translated stolen bases: number of stolen bases adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[454] = new Array('t_cs', 'Translated caught stealing: number of times caught stealing adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[455] = new Array('t_out', 'Translated outs: number of outs made (AB-H+CS+SH+SF) adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[456] = new Array('t_r', 'Translated runs: number of runs scored adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[457] = new Array('t_rbi', 'Translated RBI: number of runs batted in adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[458] = new Array('t_avg', 'Translated batting average: batting average adjusted for park and season. Equal to T_H / T_AB.');
jpfl_definitions[459] = new Array('t_obp', 'Translated OBP: on-base percentage adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[460] = new Array('t_slg', 'Translated SLG: slugging percentage adjusted for park and season.');
jpfl_definitions[461] = new Array('ga_opps', 'Ground advancement opportunities: number of times a baserunner was involved in one of the following situations:
\n\nSet B = 1.36 (H-HR) + BB + HBP - .06 K
\nThis is your baserunner term.
\n\nPBR = HR + X * B * (B+HR) / TBF ,
\n\nwhere X is a constant set for the league, typically around .67.
\n\nPBRA is simply PBR/IP *9.
\n\nYou can also use expected hits allowed instead of actual hits allowed; I call that the PBRA2, and also adjust the innings for the difference between actual and expected hits.\n\nIf you are working with translated statistics, then you can use the per nine inning stats, with X=.695 and TBF=27 + H/9 + BB/9. You may see small differences between this calculation and what is displayed; HBP, which are included in the DTs even though they are not displayed, are the biggest reason for that.'); jpfl_definitions[480] = new Array('raweqa', 'The first step in putting together equivalent average.
\n\nIn its fullest form,
\n\nRawEQA = (H+TB+1.5*(BB+HBP+SB)+SH+SF-IBB/2) / (PA+SB+CS),
\n\nwhere PA=AB+BB+HBP+SH+SF. Feel free to drop any variable that isn\'t readily available.\n\n\n\n'); jpfl_definitions[481] = new Array('erd', 'Expected Return Date: An estimate of the date a player is expected to return to the lineup/rotation based on the current information. A player listed as "10/4" is done for the season; October 4th is the final day of the regular season.'); jpfl_definitions[482] = new Array('tjs', 'Tommy John Surgery'); jpfl_definitions[483] = new Array('brrp', 'Batting Runs above Replacement for the Position. This is, essentially, the equivalent average version of VORP. It is the number of equivalent runs this player had above what a replacement level player with the same mix of positions. '); jpfl_definitions[484] = new Array('pipp', 'Player Injury Projection Probabilities. This is the name for the rating system that underlies the Team Health Reports. The name was submitted by reader braden23 in honor of Wally Pipp, who may have the most famous injury in all of baseball history.'); jpfl_definitions[485] = new Array('mp/mw', 'Marginal Payroll Dollars per Marginal Win, a measure introduced by Doug Pappas which evaluates the efficiency of a club\'s front office by comparing its payroll and record to the performance it could expect to attain by fielding a roster of replacement-level players, all of whom are paid the major league minimum salary. The formula is:\n
\n(club payroll - (28 x major league minimum) / ((winning percentage - .300) x 162)
\n\nRecent MLB-wide MP/MW rates using end-of-year payrolls:
\n\n
2007: $2,460,984
\n2008: $2,625,267
\n2009: $2,652,167
'); jpfl_definitions[486] = new Array('per', 'Payroll Efficiency Rating, measure developed by Shawn Hoffman expressing the ratio of a team\'s estimated marginal revenue (derived from third-order win totals and market size factors) to its expected marginal revenue (derived from payroll). Draft pick value is also factored in to account for the increased value of a high first-round pick. The concept behind PER was introduced here though the name came later.\n\nPER\' is a variant of this which substitutes actual win totals for third-order win totals in the estimated marginal revenue calculation.'); jpfl_definitions[487] = new Array('4c', 'A player capable of playing the four corner positions: first base, third base, right field and left field.'); jpfl_definitions[488] = new Array('mi', 'Someone who can play both middle infield positions, second and short.'); jpfl_definitions[489] = new Array('laim', 'League-Average Innings Muncher, a term coined by blogger Travis Nelson that is associated with adequate back-end rotation types.'); jpfl_definitions[490] = new Array('tav', 'True Average (TAv) is a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average. Adjustments are made for park and league quality, as such the league-average mark is constant at .260. '); jpfl_definitions[491] = new Array('pythagenport', 'A modified form of Bill James\' Pythagorean formula previously used in our Adjusted Standings calculations, since replaced by Pythagenpat.'); jpfl_definitions[492] = new Array('expected win pct', 'The expected win percentage used to run the Monte Carlo sim based on projected strength of team, but exclusive of schedule. Not to be confused with actual expected winning percentage.'); jpfl_definitions[493] = new Array('sim win', 'The average number of end-of-season wins in the simulated seasons.'); jpfl_definitions[494] = new Array('sim loss', 'The average number of end-of-season losses in the simulated seasons.'); jpfl_definitions[495] = new Array('div pct', 'The percentage of times a team wins their division in the simulated seasons.'); jpfl_definitions[496] = new Array('wc pct', 'The percentage of times a team wins one of the two Wild Cards in the simulated seasons.'); jpfl_definitions[497] = new Array('playoff pct', 'The percentage of times a team makes the playoffs - either through winning their division or their league\'s Wild Card - in the simulated seasons.'); jpfl_definitions[498] = new Array('mlb%', 'MLB% is the percentage of the comps who played in MLB the following season'); jpfl_definitions[499] = new Array('dmpi', 'Days Missed Per Injury. The average number of days missed per team injury.'); jpfl_definitions[500] = new Array('chipper', 'Comprehensive Health Index [of] Pitchers [and] Players [with] Evaluative Results'); jpfl_definitions[501] = new Array('1-day', 'The 1-day injury risk is a part of the CHIPPER injury projection system. It assesses how likely it is that a player will miss one or more days due to injury.\n\nAssociated colors represent the probability of risk: green for low probability, yellow for moderate, and red for high.'); jpfl_definitions[502] = new Array('15-days', 'The 15-day injury risk is a part of the CHIPPER injury projection system. It assesses how likely it is that a player will miss 15 or more days due to injury.
\n\nAssociated colors represent the probability of risk: green for low probability, yellow for moderate, and red for high.'); jpfl_definitions[503] = new Array('30-days', 'The 30-day injury risk is a part of the CHIPPER injury projection system. It assesses how likely a player will miss 30 or more days due to injury.
\n\nAssociated colors represent the probability of risk: green for low probability, yellow for moderate, and red for high.'); jpfl_definitions[504] = new Array('tdl', 'Total days lost to injury.'); jpfl_definitions[505] = new Array('g_num', 'Guillen Number, the percentage of a team\'s runs which come via home runs. '); jpfl_definitions[506] = new Array('run expectancy matrix', 'How many runs are likely to score in a certain base-out situation.'); jpfl_definitions[507] = new Array('snwp', 'Support-Neutral Winning Percentage'); jpfl_definitions[508] = new Array('fair_qs', 'Fair Quality Starts'); jpfl_definitions[509] = new Array('pct1', '1st Order Winning Percentage uses Pythagenpat method based on actual runs scored and runs allowed to determine how often a team "should have" won based on their run differential. '); jpfl_definitions[510] = new Array('pct2', '2nd Order Winning Percentage substitutes projected runs scored for actual runs scored. This calculates, based on a team\'s underlying stats, how many runs they "should have" scored and uses that in the Pythagenpat method.'); jpfl_definitions[511] = new Array('pct3', '3rd Order Winning Percentage: A team\'s projected winning percentage, based on underlying statistics and adjusted for quality of opponents. '); jpfl_definitions[512] = new Array('ahlf', 'Adjusted Hit List Factor: Adjusts Hit List Factor (HLF) for quality of league. '); jpfl_definitions[513] = new Array('1 day delta', 'The difference in a team\'s playoff odds from yesterday.'); jpfl_definitions[514] = new Array('7 day delta', 'The difference in a team\'s playoff odds from seven days ago.'); jpfl_definitions[515] = new Array('fair_ip', 'The amount of innings pitched based on the expected outs calculated from a pitchers Fair Runs Average (FRA)'); jpfl_definitions[516] = new Array('ubb', 'Unintentional bases on balls (walks)'); jpfl_definitions[517] = new Array('gidp', 'Grounded into Double Play'); jpfl_definitions[518] = new Array('qs', 'Quality Start: A start where a pitcher completed at least six innings and gave up no more than three runs.'); jpfl_definitions[519] = new Array('bvorp', 'Value over Replacement Player (VORP) as a batter, in runs. This is equal to VORP for batters who did not pitch.'); jpfl_definitions[520] = new Array('pvorp', 'Value over Replacement Player (VORP) as a pitcher.'); jpfl_definitions[521] = new Array('bwarp', 'Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) gained as a non-pitcher. This includes hitting and fielding.'); jpfl_definitions[522] = new Array('pwarp', 'Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) as a pitcher.'); jpfl_definitions[523] = new Array('batter', 'On the custom statistic reports, the Batter column is a unique identification number for the respective batter.'); jpfl_definitions[524] = new Array('opp_qual_ops', 'Opponent\'s Quality, On-Base plus Slugging Average -- the aggregate OPS of all batters faced (by a pitcher), or allowed by all pitchers faced (for a batter) '); jpfl_definitions[525] = new Array('fair_ra', 'See FRA'); jpfl_definitions[526] = new Array('run value', 'The number of runs expected to score from a particular event, based on historical data.'); jpfl_definitions[527] = new Array('inh_runners', 'Inherited Runners. The total number of runners on base when the pitcher came into the game. '); jpfl_definitions[528] = new Array('rep_level', 'The number of runs an average player would have produced relative to replacement level.'); jpfl_definitions[529] = new Array('pos_adj', 'The defensive value of the position a player plays, in total runs relative to the average player.'); jpfl_definitions[530] = new Array('tot_def', 'A player\'s total defensive value - the sum of his FRAA and POS_ADJ.'); jpfl_definitions[531] = new Array('rpa_plus', 'A player\'s runs per plate appearance, relative to the league average - 100 means average, 120 is 20% better than average, etc.'); jpfl_definitions[532] = new Array('platoon splits', 'The stats versus pitchers or hitters of each side - left or right.'); jpfl_definitions[533] = new Array('age', 'A player\'s "seasonal age" or "baseball age" is his age as of July 1st that season.'); jpfl_definitions[534] = new Array('siera', 'Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average estimates ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate, eliminating the effects of park, defense and luck. It adds little value and has been retired from the Baseball Prospectus statistical offerings as of 2011. See Lost in the SIERA Madre for more explanation.'); jpfl_definitions[535] = new Array('playoff odds report', 'The Playoff Odds Report displays the latest postseason chances generated through daily simulation of the rest of the season. '); jpfl_definitions[536] = new Array('adjusted standings ', 'The Adjusted Standings offer insight into a team\'s record. '); jpfl_definitions[537] = new Array('team audit standings', 'The Team Audit Standings provide a portal on how teams are performing in general categories. '); jpfl_definitions[538] = new Array('depth charts', 'The Depth Charts page compiles pertinent team data based on PECOTA projections and the latest Depth Charts update. '); jpfl_definitions[539] = new Array('opp_qual_tav', 'Opponent\'s Quality, True Average -- the aggregate True Average of all batters faced (by a pitcher), or allowed by all pitchers faced (for a batter).'); jpfl_definitions[540] = new Array('transactions browser', 'The Transactions Browser was designed to serve as a portal to all the latest transaction news and analysis. '); jpfl_definitions[541] = new Array('compensation browser', 'The Compensation Browser allows users to access salary and payroll data, as well as the Cot\'s Contracts website. '); jpfl_definitions[542] = new Array('date on ', 'The date the player suffered the injury.'); jpfl_definitions[543] = new Array('date off', 'The date the player returned from the injury.'); jpfl_definitions[544] = new Array('transaction', 'Whether a player is listed as day-to-day or went on the 15-day or 60-day disabled list due to the injury.'); jpfl_definitions[545] = new Array('days', 'How many days the player missed due to the injury.'); jpfl_definitions[546] = new Array('games', 'How many games the player missed due to the injury.'); jpfl_definitions[547] = new Array('side', 'Used to identify on which side the injury occurred.'); jpfl_definitions[548] = new Array('body part', 'Used to identify on which body part an injury occurred. '); jpfl_definitions[549] = new Array('injury', 'The type of injury-i.e. soreness, laceration, contusion, etc.'); jpfl_definitions[550] = new Array('re-aggravation ', 'Whether the injury suffered is reoccurring. '); jpfl_definitions[551] = new Array('tav_against ', 'True Average Against is to True Average what Batting Average Against is to Batting Average. In other words, True Average Against will tell you how well opposing batters have hit a pitcher. Do note that while True Average Against takes the pitcher\'s park, league, and situational-based hitting into account, it does not exclude data where the pitcher faced an opposing pitcher. Because of that, National League pitchers should possess lower True Average Against than their American League counterparts. '); jpfl_definitions[552] = new Array('fair ra_plus', 'A player\'s pitcher\'s Fair Run Average, relative to the league average - 100 means average, 120 is 20% better than average, etc.\n'); jpfl_definitions[553] = new Array('ip-sp', 'The amount of innings pitched as a starter. '); jpfl_definitions[554] = new Array('ip-rp', 'The amount of innings pitched as a reliever. '); jpfl_definitions[555] = new Array('10-year forecast', 'The 10-Year Forecast is a player\'s weighted mean PECOTA forecast, taken over his next 10 seasons.
\nThe process for generating a player\'s weighted mean line for a season some number of years into the future (e.g. 2014) is fundamentally identical to generating his forecast for the season immediately upcoming (e.g. 2012). The exception is that some players may have dropped out of the comparables database, in which case their performance cannot be considered. (See also \nJeremy Giambi Effect).\nNote that the Ten-Year Forecast assumes that a player\'s team context remains the same for all years of the forecast.'); jpfl_definitions[556] = new Array('agl', 'AGL stands for Average Games Lost and is found in Collateral Damage Daily. '); jpfl_definitions[557] = new Array('atd', 'ATD is the average TAv lost due to the injuries and is found in Collateral Damage Daily. '); jpfl_definitions[558] = new Array('#want', 'According to Jason Parks, #want is the manifestation of human desire and physical yield; when the yearning for perfection becomes visible to the naked eye. '); jpfl_definitions[559] = new Array('tav_minus_avg', 'A player\'s True Average minus batting average. Provides a quick picture on whether a player\'s batting average is "empty" or "full."'); jpfl_definitions[560] = new Array('fip_minus_era', 'A pitcher\'s FIP minus his earned run average. Provides a quick look at whether a pitcher is over or underperforming his peripherals (as defined as his strikeouts, walks, home runs, and hit batsmen). '); jpfl_definitions[561] = new Array('slgbip', 'The Slugging Percentage of Balls Put in Play.'); jpfl_definitions[562] = new Array('zone_rt', 'Zone Rate: the percentage of pitches seen or thrown in the strike zone.'); jpfl_definitions[563] = new Array('swing_rt', 'Swing rate: the percentage of pitches swung at.'); jpfl_definitions[564] = new Array('contact_rt', 'Contact rate: percentage of pitches swung at on which contact is made (includes foul balls).'); jpfl_definitions[565] = new Array('z_swing_rt', 'Zone Swing Rate: the percentage of pitches in the strike zone at which the batter(s) swing.'); jpfl_definitions[566] = new Array('o_swing_rt', 'Out-of-zone Swing Rate: Percentage of pitches out of the zone swung at.'); jpfl_definitions[567] = new Array('z_contact_rt', 'Zone Contact Rate: percentage of swings at pitches in the zone on which contact is made.'); jpfl_definitions[568] = new Array('o_contact_rt', 'Out-of-zone contact rate: percentage of swings on pitches out of the zone on which contact is made.'); jpfl_definitions[569] = new Array('sw_strk_rt', 'Swinging strike rate: percentage of swings missed.'); jpfl_definitions[570] = new Array('ws win pct', 'The odds that a team will win the World Series, given its Adj. Playoff Pct and Expected Win Pct.'); jpfl_definitions[571] = new Array('adj. playoff pct', 'The odds of a team reaching the Division Series round.'); jpfl_definitions[572] = new Array('sb_r1', 'The number of team stolen bases accumulated by runners on first base.'); jpfl_definitions[573] = new Array('sb_r2', 'The number of team stolen bases accumulated by runners on second base.'); jpfl_definitions[574] = new Array('sb_r3', 'The number of team stolen bases accumulated by runners on third base.'); jpfl_definitions[575] = new Array('cs_r1', 'The number of team caught stealings accumulated by runners on first base.'); jpfl_definitions[576] = new Array('cs_r2', 'The number of team caught stealings accumulated by runners on second base.'); jpfl_definitions[577] = new Array('cs_r3', 'The number of team caught stealings accumulated by runners on third base.'); jpfl_definitions[578] = new Array('po_r1', 'The number of team pickoffs accumulated by runners on first base.'); jpfl_definitions[579] = new Array('po_r2', 'The number of team pickoffs accumulated by runners on second base.'); jpfl_definitions[580] = new Array('po_r3', 'The number of team pickoffs accumulated by runners on third base.'); jpfl_definitions[581] = new Array('framing chances', 'Pitches a catcher potentially had some responsibility for the call of a ball or strike'); jpfl_definitions[582] = new Array('fr_chances', 'how many pitches a catcher had a chance/need to frame'); jpfl_definitions[583] = new Array('predicted_strikes', 'the number of strikes the catcher is expected to have received according to RPM'); jpfl_definitions[584] = new Array('actual_strikes', 'the number of strikes the catcher actually received'); jpfl_definitions[585] = new Array('extra_strikes', 'the difference between actual and predicted strikes received by the catcher'); jpfl_definitions[586] = new Array('fr_runs_added_by_count', 'runs RPM credits to the catcher, using the ball-strike context to calculated run value'); jpfl_definitions[587] = new Array('fr_runs_added_by_call', 'how many runs RPM would assign using a generic .14 runs available per frame'); jpfl_definitions[588] = new Array('bl_chances', 'pitches the catcher received that could have resulted in a wild pitch or passed ball'); jpfl_definitions[589] = new Array('predcited_pbwp', 'the number of passed balls and wild pitches predicted by RPM'); jpfl_definitions[590] = new Array('bl_runs_added', 'the run value accumulated from preventing wild pitches and passed balls'); jpfl_definitions[591] = new Array('actual_pbwp', 'the number of passed balls and wild pitches allowed by the catcher'); jpfl_definitions[592] = new Array('pbwp_saved', 'the difference between actual and predicted passed balls and wild pitches allowed by the catcher\n'); jpfl_definitions[593] = new Array('traa_percent', 'The model for TRAA (Takeoff Rate Above Average) is similar to SRAA, but more complicated. With Takeoff Rate, we don\'t care whether the baserunner actually succeeds in stealing the base; what we care about is that he made an attempt. '); jpfl_definitions[594] = new Array('epaa_percent', 'Unfortunately, Passed Balls or Wild Pitches Above Average would be quite a mouthful. Again, we\'re trying out a new term to see if it is easier to communicate these concepts. We\'re going to call these events Errant Pitches. The statistic that compares pitchers and catchers in these events is called Errant Pitches Above Average, or EPAA.'); jpfl_definitions[595] = new Array('cfip', 'Each underlying event in the FIP equation — be it a home run, strikeout, walk, or hit by pitch — is modeled to adjust for, as appropriate, the effect of the individual batter, catcher and umpire; the stadium; home-field advantage; umpire bias; and the handedness relationship between pitcher and batter present during each individual plate appearance.'); jpfl_definitions[596] = new Array('epaa', 'EPAA - Errant Pitches Above Average - is the official name for Passed Balls and Wild Pitches above average. Please click here for details: Errant Pitches Above Average'); jpfl_definitions[597] = new Array('traa', 'TRAA - Takeoff Rate Above Average - is the official name for Stolen Base Attempts Above Average. Please click here for details: Takeoff Rate Above Average'); jpfl_definitions[598] = new Array('dra', 'DRA needs a week or two to get started each year but is up and running for good by May, and often well before.Swipe Rate, as its name implies, judges each participant in a base-stealing attempt for his likely effect upon its success. Using a generalized linear mixed model, we simultaneously weight all participants involved in attempted steals against each other, and then determine the likelihood of the base ending up as stolen, as compared to the involvement of a league-average pitcher, catcher, or lead runner, respectively.
\n'); jpfl_definitions[602] = new Array('dra_rep_ra', 'Replacement level used for a particular pitcher in computing WARP based on DRA.'); jpfl_definitions[603] = new Array('dra_runs_saved', 'Number of runs saved - compared to replacement level - by this pitcher, taking into account DRA, DRA_REP_RA, and innings pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[604] = new Array('pr', 'Times a pinch runner was used.'); jpfl_definitions[605] = new Array('pos_sh', 'Sacrifice bunts (SAC or SH) by position players.'); jpfl_definitions[606] = new Array('peak mph', '95th percentile of velocity among "hard" pitches thrown. These include 4-seam, 2-seam, and cut fastballs.'); jpfl_definitions[607] = new Array('mph_95_tile', '95th percentile of velocity among "hard" pitches thrown. These include 4-seam, 2-seam, and cut fastballs.'); jpfl_definitions[608] = new Array('fraa_adj', 'FRAA for catchers is augmented with framing, throwing and blocking contributions. The total of these values is called FRAA_ADJ.'); jpfl_definitions[609] = new Array('blocking runs', 'Runs a catcher saves (usually over the course of a season), based on EPAA.'); jpfl_definitions[610] = new Array('epaa_runs', 'Runs a catcher saves (usually over the course of a season), based on EPAA.'); jpfl_definitions[611] = new Array('pitchpairs', 'This is the number of sequential pitchers in the sample for the given selection.'); jpfl_definitions[612] = new Array('diffattunnel', 'Tunnel Differential - This statistic tells you how far apart two pitches are at the Tunnel Point—the point during their flight when the hitter must make a decision about whether to swing or not (roughly 175 milliseconds before contact).'); jpfl_definitions[613] = new Array('diffatplate', 'Plate Differential - This statistic shows how far apart back-to-back pitches end up at home plate, roughly where the batter would contact the ball. This includes differentiation generated by pitch break and trajectory of the ball (which includes factors like gravity, arm angle at release, etc.).'); jpfl_definitions[614] = new Array('posttunnelbreak', 'Break Differential - This stat tells us how much each spin-induced movement is generated on each pitch between the tunnel point and home plate. Think of this like PITCHf/x pitch movement, except that it is only tracking the time between the Tunnel Point and home plate.'); jpfl_definitions[615] = new Array('flighttimediff', 'Speed Changes - This is the average difference, in seconds, between back-to-back pitches.'); jpfl_definitions[616] = new Array('diffatrelease', 'Release Differential - When analyzing pitchers, we often talk about consistency in their release point, pointing to scatter plots to see if things look effectively bunched or not. This stat measures the average variation between back-to-back pitches at release.'); jpfl_definitions[617] = new Array('breaktotunnelratio', 'Break:Tunnel Ratio - This stat shows us the ratio of post-tunnel break to the differential of pitches at the Tunnel Point. The idea here is that having a large ratio between pitches means that the pitches are either tightly clustered at the hitter\'s decision-making point or the pitches are separating a lot after the hitter has selected a location to swing at. Either way a pitcher\'s ratio can be large.'); jpfl_definitions[618] = new Array('releasetotunnelratio', 'Release:Tunnel Ratio - This stat shows us the ratio of a pitcher\'s release differential to their tunnel differential. Pitchers with smaller Release:Tunnel Ratios have smaller differentiation between pitches through the tunnel point, making it more difficult for opposing hitters to distinguish them in theory.'); jpfl_definitions[619] = new Array('pi_pitch_type1', '1st Pitch Type: This is the selected pitches for drilling down on a specific sequence.'); jpfl_definitions[620] = new Array('pi_pitch_type2', '2nd Pitch Type: This is the selected pitches for drilling down on a specific sequence.'); jpfl_definitions[621] = new Array('cs prob', 'This stat tells us the likelihood that a particular pitch will be called a strike based on a variety of factors. CS Prob is calculated on every pitch thrown by a pitcher. CS Prob is a proxy for control, or the ability of a pitcher to throw strikes.'); jpfl_definitions[622] = new Array('pitcher csaa', 'This stat details the additional called strikes outside the reference zone that are credited to the pitcher after accounting for catcher, umpire, pitch type, etc. This stat is calculated on all called pitches (i.e., balls not in play). Pitcher CSAA is a proxy for command, or the pitcher\'s ability to locate the ball precisely. Both "expected" / mean values and SDs are provided.'); jpfl_definitions[623] = new Array('ofp', 'The final score, OFP, is an abbreviation of Overall Future Potential. This is a scout\'s single score on a player. It is not an average of his individual scores.'); jpfl_definitions[624] = new Array('dra_minus', 'DRA- (pronounced "DRA Minus" and sometimes written as "DRA-Minus") rates pitchers by how well they compared to their peers rather than by an amount of predicted runs allowed in a given season. Knowledgeable baseball fans are familiar with statistics like this. Common examples include FIP-, ERA-, and wRC+. The formula for DRA-Minus is DRA / DRA_mean * 100'); jpfl_definitions[625] = new Array('drc_plus', 'DRC+ is the Deserved Runs Created for a batter, scaled to a 100-based index. It tells us how valuable a player\'s offensive contribution is by assigning appropriate credit to plate appearance outcomes and applying contextual factors like park effects and opponent quality.'); jpfl_definitions[626] = new Array('drc_raa', 'Deserved Runs Above Average - Runs above average for a hitter (RAA) based on the DRC+ model.'); jpfl_definitions[627] = new Array('drp', 'Deserved Runs Prevented (DRP) is BP’s metric for assessing fielder performance.'); function jpfl_getStat ( inStatIndex ) { failMessage = "Stat definition could not be located."; inStatIndexLC = inStatIndex.toLowerCase(); for (i = 0; i < jpfl_definitions.length; i++) { if (jpfl_definitions[i][0] == inStatIndexLC) return jpfl_definitions[i][1]; } return failMessage; } function doTooltip(e, msg) { if ( typeof Tooltip == "undefined" || !Tooltip.ready ) return; Tooltip.show(e, msg); } function hideTip() { if ( typeof Tooltip == "undefined" || !Tooltip.ready ) return; Tooltip.hide(); }